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035
FXUS63 KSGF 241743
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this
  evening. Hail to 2" in diameter and damaging wind gusts to 60
  mph are the primary severe weather hazards.

- Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday
  night into Sunday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Synoptic Scale Pattern and Current Conditions:

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper level trough lifting
northeast across the Dakotas with a trough axis extending
southeast into the Corn Belt. Height falls with this feature are
confined to areas near and north of I-80 corridor.

At the surface, low pressure is analyzed across the eastern
Dakotas with a cold front trailing through central Iowa and
into southeastern Kansas and central Oklahoma.

Ahead of the front, the atmosphere has become very unstable with
MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg. Weak convective inhibition does
remain thanks to the presence of an elevated mixed layer. This
has prevented convective initiation up to this point. Visible
satellite imagery does indicate multiple bands of towering
cumulus in the vicinity of the front.

Deep layer shear is around 30 knots which will be supportive of
multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells, if we can get
initiation. Low-level shear remains weak with 0-1 km storm
relative helicity values generally below 100 m2/s2.

Late this Afternoon and Tonight:

Forcing along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm
development with some storms expected to become severe. Storms
will initially develop between the I-49 and Highway 65 corridors
around mid-afternoon before gradually shifting southeast into
the remainder of the Ozarks late this afternoon and this evening
with the passing front.

As was mentioned above, we think the primary mode will be
convective clusters as deep layer shear remains around 30
knots. However, 12Z HREF 2-5 km updraft helicity plots do
indicate the presence of a few supercells.

Inspection of the large hail parameter reveals that hail to two
inches in diameter will be possible with any supercells.
Otherwise, hail to the size of half-dollars will be favored with
stronger multicells.

There will also be a damaging wind gust threat with these
storms, especially with storms that can grow upscale into
small line segments. DCAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg and theta-e
differentials around 30K are supportive of damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph.

The HREF localized probability-matched mean product indicates a
few pockets of 1.50-2.00" rainfall amounts across south-central
Missouri with max values of 2.00-2.50". Thus, the threat for
any flash flooding is low and very localized.

Late Tonight into Saturday:

This period looks quiet as we see weak height rises from later
tonight into Saturday morning. That cold front will stall out
and begin to lift back north as a warm front. Short term
ensembles have that front already reaching the Highway 54
corridor by 00Z on Sunday.

While there will be a very low-end chance for an afternoon
thunderstorm across southern Missouri (less than 20%), that
elevated mixed layer will become reestablished over the area.
This will likely cap off convective initiation during the day on
Saturday.

Short term ensembles show good agreement that high temperatures
will reach the lower to middle 80s on Saturday. Surface winds
will shift from the east to the southeast as that warm front
lifts north.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Saturday night into Sunday: By late Saturday afternoon,
convection will start to develop to our west ahead of a
dryline/cold front in the plains and upper divergence aloft in
advance of the next shortwave. Thunderstorm chances will start
in the west during the evening with the approach of the frontal
system and then spread east across the area during the overnight
into Sunday as the front moves through the forecast area. All
modes of severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and
large hail the main severe weather risks.

Monday-Tuesday: An upper level low will push across the upper
Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes region with a
northwesterly flow developing over the area in the wake of this
weekends system. Drier air should move into the area with
generally dry conditions and temperatures near normal for this
time of year in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday - Thursday: Moisture will begin to creep back to the
north in the middle to later part of next week and we`ll
probably see increased rain chances by the later part of the
week. Temperatures should remain close to normal for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A cold front will continue to slowly move southeast across
southern Missouri this afternoon and this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop along this front, a few of which
could be severe.

High resolution weather models indicate that the greatest
probabilities for storms will be for the Springfield and Branson
aerodromes. MVFR and brief IFR conditions will be present with
storms along with gusty and erratic winds. Large hail will also
occur with some storms. The thunderstorm threat is expected to
diminish by 03Z.

Southerly to southwesterly surface winds this afternoon will
shift to the northwest behind the front this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann