Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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618 FXUS64 KSJT 240805 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 305 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest and south central United States will continue to provide subsidence across west central Texas today through tonight. Low to mid level moisture will continue to be limited across northwest Texas as a result. Hot and dry conditions will persist this afternoon with temperatures in the middle to upper 90s across most of the CWA except across portions of the Concho Valley where highs will likely reach at least 100 degrees and across portions of the Big Country where highs will approach 100 degrees. Temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday morning.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The summer doldrums for West Central Texas will be the main weather story for the next 7 to 10 days, with generally hot and dry conditions prevailing across the area. The upper level ridge axis centered over Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma for the start and middle of the week will gradually weaken slightly for the weekend and then recenter closer to the lour Mississippi Valley for early next week. That brief weakening over the weekend may be enough to allow a few storms to sneak into the Panhandle and Oklahoma and then perhaps south of the Red River into the northern Big Country. Will continue the slight chance of POPs mentioned for Saturday and Sunday. The hot temperatures will continue with readings generally 98 to 103 across West Central Texas. Will flirt with Heat Advisory for Tuesday and Wednesday in a few counties across the Big Country and Heartland, where dewpoints are forecasted to be a little higher and drive heat index values up a few extra degrees. Evapotranspiration (pulling moisture up into the atmosphere from moist soils and green plants) will play a role in this so there is a little uncertainty is just how effective this will be. Will hold off on a Heat Advisory for now and get a better feel for how dewpoints react the next few afternoons. As the ridge weakens slightly over the weekend, it may be enough to allow highs to drop back closer to seasonal normals in the 95 to 100 range. They likely start to climb back above the 100 degree mark as the ridge re-strengthens next week.
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&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Satellite images and surface observations indicate mostly clear skies across the CWA late tonight. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across west central Texas early Monday morning through Mon afternoon as the 500mb ridge across most of the state of Texas provides subsidence across the area. Winds will be light and variable overnight into Mon morning. Light southerly winds will prevail across the area through Mon afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene 97 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 100 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 96 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 96 76 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 98 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 94 74 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...61