Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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358 FXUS64 KSJT 201937 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A moist and unstable airmass has moved into west central Texas in the wake of the tropical-based rain shield that moved through the area this morning. CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg along with dewpoints in the low 70s should result in some scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mainly from the Concho Valley southward. Given the tropical-based nature of these storms, they are not expected to become severe, but could produce some locally heavy downpours due to PWAT values around 2 inches. As Alberto pushes through central Mexico and continues to degenerate into a remnant low this evening, chances for showers and thunderstorms will diminish and become confined to Crockett County and the western Concho Valley Thursday night. A more stable airmass should take over by early Friday morning as a broad upper ridge, located over the Ohio Valley, starts to build into west central Texas. This stable pattern should keep most of west central Texas dry and sunny with decreasing clouds for the rest of Friday. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than the past couple of days given more sunshine. The one exception is in southern Crockett County, where some lingering moisture from the remnants of Alberto may result in some diurnally-driven showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM...
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(Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the weekend, we continue the warming trend across the region as dry conditions make a return. A high pressure system will develop across the southwestern U.S., which will leave us on the eastern end of this system. This will be the root cause of our hot and dry conditions. Some locations may make a return to the triple digits early next week.
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&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 MVFR ceilings should continue to dissipate over the next 1-2 hours. However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon for southern terminals and move from east to west. Individual cells may produce brief gusty winds. Storms should diminish later this evening, with ceilings lowering back to MVFR overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 89 71 94 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 71 92 70 96 / 20 10 0 0 Junction 72 89 70 93 / 20 10 0 0 Brownwood 71 88 70 93 / 10 10 0 0 Sweetwater 70 90 71 96 / 20 0 0 0 Ozona 70 87 70 92 / 40 10 0 0 Brady 70 86 69 91 / 20 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...SK