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801
FXUS64 KSJT 201934
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
234 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Similar to yesterday, high dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s and
above-normal temperatures are combining to make very uncomfortable
conditions with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 105. Tomorrow
will be a bit more bearable, temperature wise, as an upper low
approaches from the west. The low is currently sitting over southern
California and is forecast to push eastward towards the four corners
region tomorrow. As it does this, the ridge will start to break down
slightly. This will allow our temperatures to decrease by a few
degrees, keeping our heat indices below 100 degrees for most of the
region. Winds will be gusty tomorrow afternoon again, with gusts
around 20 to 30 mph. The precipitation ahead of the previously
mentioned upper low is expected to remain to our north and west
tomorrow, leaving us with a dry forecast for Saturday afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Chance of Showers and Storms return starting Sunday as a cold
front moves into the area.

...Temperatures cool back to near or below normal for next week...

Model blends and ensembles have come into a little better
agreement for the upcoming week and therefore rain chances have
inched up a little more. General idea is that the upper level
ridge will weaken and allow a broad upper level trough to settle
into the Plains. Cold front arrives with it on, sagging into the
area as early as Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Good low level
moisture remains in place and will overrun the frontal boundary
with rain chances increasing Sunday night, with the primary focus
on the area north and west of an Abilene to San Angelo line.

The main shortwave will push away from the area and rain chances
will decrease for Monday and Monday Night, before another
shortwave rounds the base of the main upper trough and helps
produce another round of convection for mid week. Lots of spread
in the models specifically with regards to timing of the second
shortwave so suspect that as we get closer to the event, the broad
POPs we see in the mid to late next week will settle into a few
periods of higher POP chances with less the rest of the time.

As for temperatures, cloud cover and rain will drop afternoon
highs back into the 70s and 80s for Monday with readings mainly
near or a little below normal for the rest of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Gusty winds are likely again this afternoon and will weaken after
sunset. Low clouds ware expected again overnight in similar areas
to this morning. MVFR conditions are likely at KJCT and KSOA and
are possible at KBBD and KSJT. Low clouds should start to clear
out in the late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     73  94  72  91 /   0   0   0  40
San Angelo  73  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  20
Junction    70  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   71  94  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  74  94  74  89 /   0   0  10  50
Ozona       72  91  72  89 /   0   0   0  20
Brady       70  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
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&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...AP