-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
873
FXUS64 KSJT 180747
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
247 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Early this morning, radar was picking up on two small clusters of
showers and storms: one across the Trans Pecos west of Crockett
County and the other just east of Lubbock. Both of these clusters
are slowly moving east towards our area. Have added some PoPs for
far northern portions of the Big Country as well as the Western
Concho Valley and Crockett County through the early morning hours.
Hi-resolution guidance shows most of the cluster east of Lubbock
staying north of our area with the cluster further south gradually
dissipating after sunrise. Elsewhere, low clouds are starting to
stream northwest out of the Hill Country and will continue to
overspread the area through mid to late morning before they
mix/scatter out. Most places should see plenty of sunshine by this
afternoon. The gusty southeast winds will continue through today,
reinforcing low level moisture across the area. This continued
presence and even slight increase in moisture will keep highs a
couple degrees lower than yesterday with most places topping out in
the low to mid 90s. As usual, the western Concho Valley will be the
hot spot across the area with temperatures in the upper 90s. With
deep tropical moisture surging ahead of the tropical depression in
the gulf, there is a very slight chance for highly isolated showers
and storms, primarily across the Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland today. Most shower activity should stay to our south and
east and confidence is too low to increase PoPs to the mentionable
category for this forecast package but felt it was worth a mention
here. Low clouds will build back in overnight from the southeast
with lows holding in the lower 70s areawide.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...Heavy rainfall, possible flooding Wednesday and Thursday...

Main weather concern will be a tropical disturbance in the Gulf
of Mexico, which could become a tropical depression/storm over the
next 48 hours (around 70 percent chance of development on the Two
Day Tropical Weather Outlook from the Hurricane Center). Models,
have the system moving into Gulf Coast Tuesday night...along a
Junction to Brownwood line Wednesday...before moving west across
the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

Tropical moisture with 2 inches of precipital water moves into
the region Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be extremely
efficient, and localized flooding possible, particularly south of
I-20. Main problem will how much influence a developing upper
ridge over Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S. will have....as
it may keep the heavy rainfall confined father south along the
I-10 corridor. Rainfall in most areas will continue to be
beneficial, but extreme tropical rainfall rates could cause flash
flooding.

The system does moves west of the region Thursday night, and dry
conditions with clearing skies are expected Friday as the upper
ridge continue to expand in from the east. Temperatures rebound
back well into the 90s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. Scattered to
broken MVFR ceilings are moving northwest out of the Hill Country
and are expected to overspread the area in the coming hours. MVFR
ceilings will begin impacting all sites between 07-10Z before
scattering out back to VFR after 15Z. Winds will remain gusty
through the period out of the south to southeast with all sites
seeing gusts in the 20-30 kt range. Gusts are expected to decrease
in magnitude after 00Z tomorrow.|

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     91  71  86  69 /   0   0  10  40
San Angelo  97  72  89  71 /   0   0  20  50
Junction    94  72  85  71 /   0   0  30  70
Brownwood   89  71  83  71 /   0   0  30  50
Sweetwater  94  71  89  69 /   0   0  10  40
Ozona       94  71  88  69 /  10   0  10  60
Brady       89  71  81  70 /   0   0  40  60
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&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...50