Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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484 FXUS64 KSJT 191713 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Hot and Dry Again Today... Not much to change to the forecast, as what we have out their today will be very similar to what we have seen all week long. Upper level ridge will remain in place and may even strengthen a little, with 850 mb temperatures forecast to inch up a little for this afternoon. This should mean that afternoon highs may be a degree or two warmer than what we have seen, pushing a few areas up towards the upper 90s. First thought is that San Angelo (102 in 2019) and Abilene (99 in 1956) will remain a few degrees below their record values but will need to watch. Continued south to southeast winds off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to feed low level moisture into the area and surface dewpoints are creeping upward. Lows tonight likely above the 70 degree mark once more. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Expect hot and mainly dry conditions through Saturday as a strong upper level ridge centers over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the 90s. Will see a change in the pattern as the ridge breaks down with weak cyclonic flow setting up over our area and a cold front moving into the area by Sunday night. The global models indicating a stronger upper level trough middle of next week. However, The ensembles are weaker with this system and still have time to watch. This all means increasing upper level support, some instability and abundant moisture leading to the NBM giving low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms early to middle of next week. Also, cooler temperatures from Sunday onward with highs in the 80s to lower 90s Sunday and mainly 80s next week. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 MVFR conditions are lifting and clearing out of the area. Skies should be mostly clear for the rest of the day, with occasional wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph through the afternoon. Low clouds are expected to return early tomorrow morning, potentially bringing MVFR conditions to our 4 southern terminals and possibly IFR conditions to KSOA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene 73 97 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 72 97 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 71 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 72 96 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 73 96 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 71 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 71 95 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...AP