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051
FXUS64 KSJT 170712
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
212 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

On Water Vapor satellite imagery, an upper level trough can be seen
over the Pacific Northwest, while upper level ridging existed across
Texas. As we go through today and tonight, the trouble will push
east into Montana/Idaho/Wyoming, while upper level ridging will
remain in place across Texas and the eastern CONUS. At the surface,
a north to south oriented dry-line will stretch from the NM/TX
Border south through the Big Bend region. Hi-res models indicate
some storms forming along the dry-line this afternoon/early evening,
but those storms should stay west of our forecast area. Meanwhile,
strong surface low pressure across eastern CO and surface high
pressure to the east of us will continue to bring a strong surface
pressure gradient to the region, causing continued gusty
southeasterly winds (15-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph) today and
tonight. Finally, expect similar highs and lows today/tonight (highs
in the low to mid 90s east, and upper 90s to around 100 west; lows
in the low to mid 70s), as the 850 mb thermal ridge stays at around
the same strength.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The focus for the long term continues to be the possibility of
heavy rainfall across parts of the area in the Wednesday through
Friday timeframe but especially on Thursday. Mainly dry conditions
will persist on Tuesday and most of Wednesday although we could
see some scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to spread into
our southeastern counties during the afternoon on Wednesday.

We continue to monitor a tropical disturbance in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico which now has a 70% chance of developing into a
tropical depression or tropical storm. Whatever ultimately
develops will likely move across northern Mexico or south Texas
around the middle of the week. Deep easterly flow around this
system will advect abundant Gulf moisture into the region, with
precipitable water values increasing to as high 1.8-2.0 inches.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Thursday especially south of I-20 as this tropical moisture begins
to spread into the region. There are still differences amongst
the operational guidance regarding rainfall amounts- the ECMWF
continues to hold a stronger ridge over the area shunting most of
the tropical moisture to the south while the GFS shows upper
level troughing over the area and thus higher rainfall amounts.
Given the uncertainty in the ultimate evolution/track of the Gulf
system and subsequent rainfall amounts for our area will continue
to stick with the model blend for now which shows a 40-50% chance
of PoPs in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Please stay tuned as
we get a better handle on this potential Gulf of Mexico
disturbance and continue to refine rainfall amounts.

With the increasing rain chances and expected cloud cover
temperatures will be much cooler after Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday
though Friday will be mainly in the 80s, with overnight lows in
the 60s. Drier and warmer conditions will return for next weekend
as upper level ridging builds back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through 09Z. 09Z-15Z, MVFR CIGs around
1500-2500 ft AGL expected to move into an area south and east of
roughly a KSJT to KCOM line, impacting KJCT, KSOA and KBBD. Chance
that KSJT will get MVFR conditions, but confidence too low to put
in TAFs. 15Z today through 06Z Tues, VFR conditions expected.
Gusty SE winds expected through 06Z Tues, at generally 12-16 KT
with gusts of 18-25 KT, except during the 13Z today to 01Z Tues,
when stronger wind speeds of 15-22 KT with gusts of 27-34 KT
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     94  74  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  99  75  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    97  74  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   91  74  90  71 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  96  74  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       96  74  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       93  74  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SJH