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418
FXUS63 KTOP 130524
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid Thursday with afternoon heat indices of 102-108
  degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued from noon-8pm.

- Isolated to scattered storms Thursday late afternoon into the evening.
  These storms could be severe with large hail and damaging
  wind gusts being the main hazards.

- Above-normal temperatures continue into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

This afternoon, a shortwave is advancing east across the Upper
Midwest with mid-level ridging over the Desert Southwest. Gusty
south-southwest winds and plentiful sunshine have boosted
temperatures into the 90s across the area. Surface winds of 5-10mph
overnight will keep lows in the low 70s.

The mid-level ridge builds northeast on Thursday with 850mb
temperatures warming to 24-27 degrees C. Breezy southwest winds
allow for good mixing and will create the hottest day of the season
so far with highs in the low 100s across central Kansas and in the
mid 90s across far eastern Kansas. Along with these hot
temperatures, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will lead to
heat indices of 102-108 degrees during the afternoon. Some
uncertainty remains in how high heat indices will reach as
deeper mixing would lead to hotter ambient temperatures, but
also lower dewpoints. Even so, confidence is high that heat
indices of 102-108 degrees will be common across the area and
Heat Advisory has been issued from noon to 8pm Thursday.

A wave of energy pushing east-southeast across the Great Lakes will
shunt a cold front into northeast Kansas during the late afternoon
and evening hours Thursday. The hot and humid airmass will
feature 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE along with 30-40kts of
effective shear, supportive of severe thunderstorms. The main
uncertainty is in the coverage of storms given a lack of large-
scale ascent. Convergence along the front is expected to be
enough to support isolated to scattered storms to develop during
the late afternoon and evening (best chances in the 5-9pm
timeframe). Any storm that develops will quickly become severe
with inverted-V soundings supporting severe wind gusts of
60-70mph along with large hail up to golf-ball size. There is a
chance that a modest cap and insufficient convergence along the
front could preclude convective development altogether.

The front pushes through the area by early Friday before lifting
back north as a warm front on Friday as a shortwave trough
approaches the Plains. Convection that develops during the evening
across western and central Kansas will be shunted east by the
ejecting trough and bring storms into the area during the evening
into the overnight hours. The environment could support severe
storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts with this round, but
details remain uncertain at this point.

The trough is slow to progress through the region and is progged to
still be working its way east on Saturday, bringing another chance
of storms to the area. Mainly dry conditions are expected Sunday and
Monday before the next wave and front approach the area Tuesday.
Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s Friday into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected for much of the period. A frontal
boundary will approach the terminals and move through MHK around
00Z and at TOP and FOE by 03Z. Isolated TSRA is possible near
the front and have added VCTS for now. Winds southerly to start
the period will become southwest around 12kts with gusts to
22kts, then decrease and back to the south at TOP and FOE. WInds
shift in the 00Z to 03Z time period at the terminals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...53