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648
FXUS63 KTOP 162330
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions continue through at least Tuesday with
  heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees each afternoon.

- Active pattern sets up midweek with several rounds of storms
  from late Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Southwesterly upper flow resides over the Central Plains this
afternoon in between a western US trough and a southeast US ridge.
The shortwave that brought storms to the area this morning has
progressed into the Mississippi Valley with subsidence in its
wake leading to clearing skies. Breezy southwest winds and the
emergence of the sun has lead to another steamy day as
temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and low 90s and
heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Southeastward
advancement of the aforementioned western trough into the
Rockies tonight into Monday will lead to a deepening surface low
across eastern Colorado. Southerly low-level flow strengthens
in response causing surface winds to stay elevated overnight
before increasing Monday. Record warm lows for June 17 may be in
jeopardy; see Climate section below for details. There is a low
(<15%) chance that evening convection across southwest Nebraska
and northwest Kansas has enough steam to make it into north
central Kansas, but convection will likely dissipate before it
impacts the forecast area.

Sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts of 30-40mph are expected
through the day Monday, strongest across north central Kansas where
speeds approach wind advisory levels for a few hours. The HREF has a
20-30% chance for a few hours of advisory level sustained winds
across north central Kansas whereas the NBM is a bit higher at
around 50%. Confidence isn`t high enough to issue an advisory, but
it will be quite windy regardless. Highs top out in the mid to upper
90s Monday afternoon with heat indices approaching 100 degrees in
spots.

The tight pressure gradient remains into Tuesday as the trough
ejects across the Northern Plains, shunting a cold front into the
region from the northwest Tuesday evening. The displacement of the
trough well to the north will lead to the boundary stalling across
the area. The placement of the front remains uncertainty, but ample
instability and a continuous influx of moisture from the low-level
jet will lead to an axis of storms and heavy rainfall along the
front Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to
severe during this timeframe, but the increased forcing along with
storm interactions will likely keep this potential on the low end.
Best chances for storms currently reside across the northwest half
of the forecast area where NBM probabilities of at least 1" of rain
are 40-65%. Models are in decent agreement in the front lifting
north Wednesday night into Thursday with dry time returning
sometime Thursday. Rain and cloud cover lead to "cooler"
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 80s.
Chances for storms return this weekend as another cold front
moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to persist with the forecast area
between upper ridging to the east and the mean westerlies to the
northwest. Surface winds at TOP may decouple enough for LLWS to
be an issue with a strengthening low level jet. There may be
enough turbulent mixing at FOE and MHK to keep some gusts at the
surface. But if winds calm there as well, will need to add LLWS
there too with a 45KT low level jet from 195 degrees.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Record Warm Low Temperatures

June 17
               Record        Forecast
Concordia     75 (2018)         77
Topeka        78 (1918)         75

June 18

               Record        Forecast
Concordia     80 (1953)         75
Topeka        81 (2021)         78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Flanagan