Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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550 FXUS63 KTOP 151533 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1033 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One more chance for a few severe storms this afternoon/evening, mainly north of I-70. - Warm temperatures with highs in the 90s continue through early next week. && .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1029 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An outflow boundary associated with the line of storms across northern KS very early this morning has continued to slowly push southward across the forecast area into mid-morning. Ascent over the outflow boundary near an instability and theta-e gradient has resulted in additional scattered thunderstorm development, most recently impacting portions of Jackson and Shawnee Counties as of 10:00 AM. Will continue to monitor trends and adjust the forecast as needed through the morning, but the general trend should be for a decrease in storm chances into midday.
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&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Line of sub-severe thunderstorms continues to push east across the area this morning. With 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, have seen a few pulses of taller cores, supporting some brief small hail and 40 mph gusts. However effective shear is only on the order of 20 kts, keeping storms outflow dominant and any notable severe threat at bay. Expecting a steady downward trend through sunrise as the line lifts northeast across the remainder of the area. A few more brief pulses of small hail and 40 mph gusts remain possible, but will be more the exception than the rule. Behind this initial line, the main upper shortwave will approach later this afternoon, lifting a warm front north through the area. Some uncertainty in exactly how fast this front does lift north, with the HRRR a faster/northern outlier. Most other guidance has the front somewhere between I-70 and the KS/NE border. This warm front placement will play a role in both afternoon temperatures and PM severe weather chances. South of the front, breezy south winds and deep boundary layer mixing will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 90s. Any storms that develop within this environment would pose a risk for gusty winds and small hail, but overall a lack of surface convergence should tend to limit development. Along and north of the warm front, cloud cover and more southeasterly winds will keep temperatures slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. However the more backed winds will lengthen shear profiles, while richer/deeper boundary layer moisture will increase the instability. This would be a more favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main hazards, though can`t completely rule out a brief tornado where winds are backed southeast in far northern Kansas. Sunday through Tuesday, there is a good consensus on drier but rather hot conditions as anomalous ridging builds across the eastern CONUS. High confidence in temperatures reaching the mid 90s across much of the area each day. Dewpoints don`t look overly oppressive across the area, generally in the mid/upper 60s, but will still be enough to push heat indices to around 100. By mid- week, a deeper upper trough over the western CONUS will push a cold front southeast towards the area. Still not very confident how far southeast this front will actually get. The eastern ridge blocks eastward progression of the western trough, resulting in the front losing its upper support by Wed/Thu. So we might not see a push of truly cooler air. Nevertheless, frontal convergence plus deep moisture transport from the Gulf will result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for mid-week. This precipitation may be what keeps temperatures slightly cooler than the early week, though still near or a bit above average. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The current east-southeast winds become southerly at 10-15 kts by this afternoon as a warm front lifts north. Ceilings stay VFR with some high clouds as well as diurnal cumulus. Still a chance for some afternoon or evening storms, most likely towards KMHK, but confidence remains low on exact timing and location. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Teefey DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Reese