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788
FXUS63 KTOP 161712
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Hot and humid continue will continue into Tuesday afternoon.

- A cold front will move south and become stationary across the
  area. The boundary will provide a chance for showers and
  storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Early this morning an upper trough extended across western MN, south-
southwest across eastern KS into central OK. A more amplified upper
trough was located across west central Canada with an upper trough
axis extending west-southwest across the Pacific northwest.

At the surface an outflow boundary was detected from northwest KS and
extended southeast to near SLN, then extended east-northeast to
south of TOP and across LWC.

Weak isentropic lift north of the outflow boundary and ascent
within the H5 trough axis continued to cause cluster of
thunderstorms to develop across much of the CWA. The severe
thunderstorms threat has ended, though a few strong
thunderstorms north of I-70 may continue, especially to the
north of I-70. As the H5 trough axis moves east into MO, the
showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken and dissipate by
mid morning.

Today through Tuesday:

Most deterministic numerical models and ensemble members keep
the CWA dry. A weak southern stream parturition will move across
the the TX Pnhdl and bring a chance for showers and storms
across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon. The more
amplified H5 trough across west central Canada and the Great
Basin will lift northeast across northern Plains Today. The
western half of the Pacific Northwest H5 trough will amplify and
dig southward across the Great Basin while a second H5 trough
across western Canada digs southward towards the US border
through 12Z MON. A surface cold front will push southward across
the northern Plains and will stall out across central NE
Tonight.

Monday, the Great Basin H5 trough will phase with the H5 trough
across west central Canada. An H5 ridge will amplify across the east
coast of the US. A lee surface trough will deepen across the
central high Plains and cause the stationary front across central NE
to lift northward into southern SD. A dryline will push east into
the CO/KS border late in the afternoon which may provide
sufficient ascent for thunderstorms to develop across western KS.
The western KS storms will remain west of the CWA, as the main
H5 jet streak lifts northeast across the central and northern
high Plains.

Tuesday, a broad H5 trough will develop across the southwestern US
as the more amplified H5 trough across the northern Plains lifts
northeast into the northern Gretal Lakes and Ontario, Canada. Low-
level CAA across the northern Plains will cause a cold front to
push southeast across western and central NE Tuesday afternoon.
At this time the front should remain north of the CWA during
the late afternoon hours as both the GFS and ECMWF show. I
cannot rule out a few thunderstorms developing across northwest
counties by late Tuesday afternoon as the front approaches.

High temperatures Today through Tuesday will reach into the 90s,
with some readings near 100 degrees across the southwest
counties this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Heat indicies will
generally be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees during the
afternoon hours. The southwest counties may reach around 103
degrees this afternoon and Monday afternoon. At this time it
looks as if heat advisory criteria, Heat index of 105 degree or
higher, will not be met.

Tuesday night through Friday,

The surface front across western and southern NE will shift southeast
across the CWA but will become stationary along or just south
of I-70. Minor perturbations will lift northeast across the
central high Plains around the broad H5 trough across the
southwest US. The combination of surface convergence along the
boundary and isentropic lift north of the boundary, and any
minor perturbations moving northeast around a broad H5 ridge
axis across the southern Plains and east coast may provide
enough ascent ahead and north of the stationary boundary for
shower and storm chances through the period. During the day on
Friday the longer range models forecast the surface boundary to
shift north through NE into SD. This will probably bring an end
to our rain chance as an upper level ridge amplifies across the
southern and central Plains. The thunderstorms during this
period probably will not be strong or severe as the H5
southwesterly flow over eastern half of KS, looks to be weak,
with only 10 to 15 KTS. But any pulse storm that develop in the
afternoon hours could produce a strong wind gusts but will
remain very isolated.

Friday night through Sunday:

The Broad upper ridge will remain over
the southern Plains and northward into KS. A couple of H5 troughs
will ride over the southern Plains ridge and may cause a surface
front to push southward across the area on Sunday, bringing a chance
for showers and storms. Saturday looks hot with highs reaching the
mid 90s to around 100 degrees. If the front does shifts south
across the area on Sunday, highs may cool slightly into the
upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail. South winds remain gusty through the
period, outside of a brief period around sunset where gusts may
subside. A 45-50kt low-level jet may lead to some low-level turbulence
overnight, especially if surface winds are weaker than forecast.
Winds strengthen further on Monday with gusts of 30-35kts by 14z.
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&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Flanagan