-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
844
FXUS63 KTOP 090846
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
346 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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-Thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall move southeast of the area
 this morning.

-Below average temperatures early in the week give way to much
 warmer conditions by midweek.

-Chances for precipitation will be low most of the week with the
 next best chance for storms arriving next weekend.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Around 09Z (4 AM) today, a batch of stratiform rain with scattered
embedded lightning strikes was ongoing area-wide. A line of more
organized convection was approaching from just south of the forecast
area. Heavier thunderstorms activity earlier produced torrential
rainfall and associated flash flooding mainly across portions of
Lyon, Coffey, and Anderson Counties. Radar estimated rainfall rates
of 1-3" per hour at times, producing QPE of over 3-4" within the
warned areas. With additional periods of intense rainfall combined
with previous heavy rainfall, rapid rises of creeks and streams
along with localized river and street flooding will remain a concern
today, especially south of Highway 56.

Rain and thunderstorms will exit the area to the southeast this
morning as a drier air mass and surface ridge work into the region
from the north. Cloud cover will also clear from north to south
today and temperatures will run a bit below average, topping out
around 80 degrees. With light winds and clear skies tonight, at
least patchy fog development seems probable, especially near and
south of the KS Turnpike where the ground remains soggy from recent
heavy rainfall and temperatures drop below crossover values.

Early in the workweek, the surface ridge will expand northeast of
the area while slowly moving southeast. Return flow begins to become
more established on Tuesday with more notable moisture advection
expected by Wednesday. Temperatures will also warm quickly during
this timeframe given increasing WAA, especially in central and north-
central KS where wind fields will be stronger. The entire forecast
area could experience temps in the 90s, and possibly near triple
digit heat in central and north-central KS by Thursday afternoon.

Aloft, the flow will generally remain out of the northwest through
midweek. Long range deterministic models show a closed low off the
southern coast of California ejecting out over the Four Corners
region as an open wave late in the week. That wave will likely bring
our next best chance for precipitation early next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The main challenge in the short-term is how far north
thunderstorms will get and whether those will impact terminals
overnight. Have included a TEMPO at KFOE and KMHK for the most
likely timeframe for thunderstorm impacts. Radar trends will be
monitored and amendments will be made if necessary. Otherwise,
VFR is expected with easterly winds around 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey