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503
FXUS63 KTOP 191119
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Thunderstorms through the day could lead to locally heavy
  rainfall and may cause flooding, especially in areas that have
  received heavy rainfall over the past few days.

- Above-normal temperatures expected Thursday into next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Southwesterly mid-level flow resides across the Central Plains this
morning between an east coast ridge and western trough. As
advertised, the surface front has stalled across the area overnight
with surface convergence along the front and isentropic ascent over
the front leading to persistent convection. Storms have been
progressive enough to keep flooding concerns isolated in nature to
this point, although the southeastward advancement of the front has
slowed and storms are moving parallel to the front. PWAT values
remain near 2" with skinny CAPE profiles and a deep warm cloud layer
producing rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour. This could lead to
additional flash flooding and/or river flooding through this morning
as the line of storms slowly moves east.

A perturbation near the OK/TX panhandles advects northeast later
this morning, bringing another push of showers and storms to the
area before precipitation becomes more scattered this afternoon.
Showers and storms along with plentiful cloud cover will lead to a
much cooler day area-wide, but especially along the Kansas/Nebraska
stateline where highs will only be in the 70s. The front is lifted
back north tonight into Thursday as the eastern ridge builds west
into the Southern and Central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms
may form near the warm front as it lifts north this evening and
overnight. If storms impact the area, they could produce some small
hail and gusty winds.

The building ridge sets the stage for a warming trend Thursday into
next week. Highs warm into the 90s Friday through the weekend with
increasing confidence in temperatures reaching the upper 90s to near
100 degrees for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Dewpoints remain in
the 60s to near 70 degrees through the entire forecast period,
creating heat indices in the 90s to low 100s each afternoon. Monday
and Tuesday look to be most concerning heat-wise given the forecast
ambient air temperatures. As far as precipitation chances go, there
could be a few pop-up showers or storms during peak heating Thursday
with better chances (20-40%) coming Saturday into Sunday as a
surface boundary moves through the area. Subtle perturbations moving
around the aforementioned ridge could lead to additional storms
Monday into the middle of the week, but predictability is low
this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Low confidence forecast in regards to timing of storms and
possible MVFR cigs. Storm coverage is waning this morning and a
break from TS activity looks probable before additional storms
move in this afternoon. Insert most likely timing for these
storms near terminals. Models continue to overdue the extent of
MVFR cigs, so have went more optimistic in TAFs. If MVFR cigs
develop, they could linger into the afternoon hours before lifting.
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&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan