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414
FXUS63 KUNR 201920
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
120 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue this
 afternoon

-Much cooler conditions this weekend, with a period of breezy
 winds early Saturday

-Mainly dry conditions with a gradual warming trend next week
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Fast moving upper trough will support a strong cold front into
the region tonight. Warm SW flow has allowed for much warmer conds
today across the region with dry conds continuing. Strong cold
front will move through the region later tonight, supporting
breezy NW winds, esp in the lee of the BH where adv level winds
are expected for period. Staunch CAA and pressure rises should
allow for a few gusts to 50 mph, esp with the cold front. There is
a slight chance for a few post frontal showers near the ND border
late tonight as some weak lift and elevated moisture advects
across the region. Much cooler Saturday and Sunday when temps will
only top out in the 60s and low 70s most places with lows in the
30s and 40s. Some frost will be possible Sat night across the NW
half, where skies remain clear. Secondary impulse will skirt south
of the area, Saturday night. However, this system has shifted
further south on model progs with dry conds expected in the FA
now. Upper ridge will slowly build back into the region next week
with above normal temps, and mainly dry weather. There is an
outside chance for a few showers Monday with a passing upper
trough. However, moisture will be very limited with this system.
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&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1109 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Northwest winds will increase tonight behind a cold front, with
gusts over 30 knots possible, strongest from KRAP eastward into
western SD plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued At 118 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Very dry conditions combined with breezy SW winds will continue
to support critical fire weather conds this afternoon across parts
of northeast WY and far southwest SD. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected elsewhere. A strong cold front will move
through tonight and Saturday morning, resulting in a period of
gusty northwest winds and more elevated fire weather conditions.
After a cool weekend, expect a gradual warming trend with elevated
fire weather conds at times next week.
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&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ320>322-325-
     326.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Saturday for
     SDZ026-030-031-042-072-073.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SE
FIRE WEATHER...JC