Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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057 FXUS63 KUNR 181712 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1112 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing showers and storms will be out of the region by late morning. - Isolated showers and storms may be possible mid-week, but better chance towards the weekend. - Below normal temperatures through mid-week, warming up for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday) Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Current surface analysis shows surface low over the south central SD/NE border, with frontal boundary stretching northeast into MN. Showers and storms continue north of the boundary for much of eastern SD, as well as areas east and north of the Black Hills in our forecast area. Severe threat has diminished and storms will slide east of the forecast area through this morning. Upper level picture shows southwest flow over our region, as an upper trough swings over the northern plains today. Temperatures sit in the mid 50s to mid 60s over most of the forecast area, while south central SD still has temperatures in the mid 70s. With the upper wave swinging across the northern plains today and low level northwesterly winds, another cool day is in store, with highs ranging from the low 60s to mid 70s. Once the morning showers/storms lift out, mostly dry conditions will be on tap the remainder of the day. The exception will be far northwestern SD nearer the disturbance, and in south central SD. Depending how well we are able to mix, gusty northwest winds may be possible late morning into the afternoon, with near advisory level winds for some parts of northwestern SD and east of the Black Hills, with 850 winds showing 30-45 kts, though diminishing as the wave slides eastward. Upper flow remains southwesterly for the remainder of the week, with mild disturbances that likely wont amount to much aside from isolated precipitation at least through Thursday. Another upper trough develops over the PAC NW late Wednesday into Thursday and slides across southern Canada towards the weekend. Out ahead of the trough we do see a mild ridge build over the mid-west into the central plains, coupled with low level south and southeasterly flow that will allow for a warming trend later in the week. Added moisture along with more disturbances will increase precipitation chances for Thursday into the first half of the weekend. Behind the upper trough upper ridging builds over the Rockies on Saturday/Sunday, sliding over the northern plains early next week, and we may see hotter and dry conditions ahead. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1107 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 AREAS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS, along with some -SHRA, are possible over northwestern South Dakota until around 03Z this evening. MVFR CIGS over south central South Dakota will gradually improve to VFR early this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty northwest winds will continue through this afternoon with winds diminishing this evening.
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&& .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...10