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591
FXUS61 KAKQ 040037
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
837 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through Thursday with daily chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushes
through Thursday night into Friday bringing drier conditions for
late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 830 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Showers/storms linger across the south but have weakened and
  pose little threat for flooding overnight.

Evening WX analysis indicates a modest NW flow in place aloft
with a ridge axis along the Appalachians. SPc mesoanalysis still
shows 1000-1500 J/Kg of ML CAPE across the southern 1/2 of the
FA, but low level lapse rates have weakened considerably,
allowing for some developing convective inhibition. Showers with
embedded tstms will be maintained through ~06Z across the south,
but stronger storms and any widespread heavy rainfall rates look
to be done. Lows tonight will mainly be in the mid to upper
60s, with lower 60s over the NW Piedmont. Patchy fog is possible
across the northern tier of the CWA from the NW Piedmont to the
Lower MD Eastern Shore, especially in areas that received
locally heavy rainfall earlier today. Some of the guidance shows
the potential for marine fog off the MD coast to reach at least
into the vicinity of Ocean City w/ light onshore flow though
confidence in this scenario is low.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
  with locally heavy rainfall possible.

High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic
coastline on Tuesday, which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold
front to push inland. Scattered showers/storms are possible
mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E
behind it with a slight drop in T/Td. The 12z/03 HREF depicts
the best coverage across s-central VA and interior NE NC, and
then into the Piedmont, with some sea-breeze activity over the
interior MD Eastern Shore. A chance of showers and a few tstms
(20-30% PoPs) continues across SW/W portions of the FA Tuesday
night as some instability linger overnight. Upper ridging
briefly builds over the area Tuesday night-early Wednesday
before moving just to our E by late Wednesday. Meanwhile, a
rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into the Great Lakes at
the same time. Shortwave energy ahead of this trough will cross
the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night, providing enough
forcing for scattered tstms to form during the afternoon and
evening (highest PoPs west of I-95). Showers and tstms move E
Wednesday night. A few tstms may be strong with strong winds the
main threat. Additionally, WPC has the W 2/3rds of the FA under
a marginal ERO for excessive rainfall both Tuesday and
Wednesday given slow storm motions. As such, localized ponding
on roadways and urban areas is possible. Highs in the mid-upper
80s Tue and Wed with lows in the mid to upper 60s Tue night and
upper 60s to lower 70s Wed night. A chc of aftn/early evening
showers/tstms lingers into Thursday with the highest PoPs
shifting toward the coast. Forecast highs are mainly in the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry, outside of a isolated afternoon showers.

- Temperatures trend slightly below normal for the weekend, but
remaining pleasant.

Sfc cold front will cross the area Thursday night into Friday.
A few lingering showers or storms are possible Thursday night,
especially across southeastern portions of the area. Aloft,
upper low will drop SE from the upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes Friday into Saturday, with a larger trough situating over
most of the eastern CONUS. While the area looks generally dry,
there could be isolated showers and storms, especially in the
afternoon Fri and Sat, with various shortwaves rotating just N
of the area. Temperatures Friday will still be on the warm side,
in the lower 80s W to the mid-upper 80s E. Dew points drop off
into the 50s for Saturday, bringing generally pleasant
conditions (outside of a brief shower, as mentioned above). Dew
points recover some later Sunday and expect isolated to
scattered showers/storms areawide (20-30% PoP) with afternoon
high temps in the low-mid 80s. Similar wx for next Monday.
Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail as of 00Z, with scattered showers
and embedded tstms now confined to far southern VA and NE NC.
Included VCSH wording at ORF and ECG to start the 00Z TAFs, but
is should remain dry elsewhere. Any lingering showers/tstms
dissipate later tonight. Some fog is possible later
tonight/early Tuesday morning, with IFR/MVFR VSBYs possible,
mainly at RIC, SBY, and PHF between 06-12Z. Isolated
showers/tstms are expected Tuesday aftn/early evening with the
best chc at RIC and ECG. The wind will become calm to very
light tonight, and then easterly at 5-10 kt Tuesday.

Additional aftn/evening showers/tstms are possible Wednesday and
Thursday (with Wednesday probably seeing the highest coverage of
storms). Mainly dry/VFR Friday into Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Prevailing sub-SCA conditions forecast through Wednesday
 though south winds increase late in the day.

-Small Craft Advisory Conditions are possible on the Bay
 Thursday due to south winds ahead of a cold front.

-Daily chances for storms over the waters.

Southwest have persisted this afternoon and decreased to
generally 5 to 10 kt as expected. Generally light southwest
winds are expected through the overnight. Moisture has returned
to the area, so expect a chance for storms this afternoon. Some
storms will be capable of producing localized higher winds and
waves (this will be handled with SMWs if necessary). This chance
of showers and storms will persist each day into at least late
this week.

A weak backdoor cold front pushes south from the Delmarva
stalling somewhere near the Middle Bay and Chincoteague. This
will result in a wind shift over the MD waters to the NE and E
Tuesday morning with winds becoming more SE and E over much of
the Bay and coastal waters. Winds increase to 10 to 15 kt, but
will remain below SCA criteria. The front lifts north Wednesday
with winds becoming more SE and S, however winds do increase
becoming more gusty Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of
the next cold front. The front will not push across the area
Friday morning with winds become NW through the day. The better
surge with stronger NW winds will may not arrive until Late
Friday into Friday night and early Saturday.

A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches
Tuesday. The risk may increase to moderate Wednesday and
Thursday especially from Assateague north to Ocean City with
nearshore waves increasing to 3ft and an increasing southeast
flow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding is possible during the
higher high tide cycles Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning
and again Thursday. Most tidal sites will likely be impacted by
very shallow flooding near the waterfront. Locations in the
northern Bay, such as Bishops Head, may bump into minor flood
stage as south winds increase late Wednesday and Thursday. The
following high tide cycle Wednesday night/early Thursday morning
may bring similar impacts as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...JKP/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...