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831
FXUS61 KAKQ 280031
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
831 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves across the region tonight. Showers and
storms will be ending later this evening. Lower humidity will
prevail for the rest of the week, though there will be a chance
for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Dry conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- The remainder of the Tornado Watch has been cancelled.

- A few widely scattered/isolated showers/tstms possible
  through midnight, clearing and dry overnight.

Storms have pushed offshore over the past hr. There is another
area of scattered tstms across MD and northern VA that may
affect NE sections of the FA through midnight, as well and a few
isolated showers currently NW of Richmond. An isolated strong
storm will be possible on the MD eastern shore from about 10 pm
through midnight, but elsewhere any additional activity should
be sub- severe (and certainly not tornadic). As such, the remaining
portions of the TOR Watch have been cancelled. Will keep PoPs
to 30-40% over the NE through around midnight, and 15-20%
elsewhere. Partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight with lows
from the upper 50s over the far NW, to the upper 60s/near 70F
across the SE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Quieter Tuesday, with scattered showers and isolated storms across
the north Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- Cooler and more comfortable Thursday.

Much quieter Tuesday, with a lingering shower or storm across
the far SE. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm,
especially across far northern portions of the area Tuesday
afternoon as a shortwave passes north of the area. Highs will
range from the lower to mid 80s to upper 80s under a mostly
sunny sky. Upper troughing situates over the eastern CONUS for
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On Wednesday, a potent
shortwave will dive SE and move of the area. This is expected to
bring an increase in cloud cover and more widespread
rain chances (compared to Tuesday) mainly N and E of the I-64
corridor. Cooler temps aloft will allow for the development of
some modest CAPE in the afternoon, so cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms (and potentially a stronger storm) as well. Highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cooler Wednesday night
with lows in the 50s for most of the area, and near 60/lower 60s
for the far SE. Cooler and more comfortable on Thursday with
temperatures generally in the 70s and dewpoints only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s under a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Cooler and more comfortable to end the week.

Another shortwave within the larger longwave trough pivots toward
the area later Thursday night into Friday. However, drier air
will work against any rain chances. Still could see increases
in cloud cover in the afternoon during peak heating. However,
with the drier air and lower heights aloft, temps will trend
back into the 70s with dew points in the 40s and 50s. Thus, it
will feel much more comfortable. High pressure builds down from
the Great Lakes to end the week and start the weekend favoring a
continuation of the dry and comfortable weather. High temps
should begin to inch up some, as ridging begins to build across
the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows through the extended will be
in the 50s to near 60 at the immediate coast. A few upper 40s
are possible Thursday and Friday night across the far NW. Dry
conditions continue into the weekend, but cannot rule out a
stray shower or storm, especially Sunday, as high pressure
begins to shift offshore. Temperatures this weekend likely
return closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 815 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail as the main batch of showers/tstms have
pushed offshore. An area of storms across northern VA and MD
will track E over the next few hrs, with some of this activity
potentially affecting NE sections of the CWA (including SBY).
Elsewhere, the chance for any additional showers/storms is too
low to include in any of the TAFs. SW winds will generally be
5-10 kt, shifting to the WNW overnight. SOme patchy ground fog
is possible especially at PHF/ECG (from about 05-10Z), though
confidence is too low to include this in the forecast. Dry/VFR
Tuesday, with a few isolated showers possible mainly N of the FA
during the aftn. W/NW winds will average around 10 kt.

Outlook: Dry VFR Tue night/Wed morning. An upper level trough
with weak sfc low pressure passes by mainly to the N of the area
Wed aftn/evening. Scattered showers and a few tstms are possible
Wed aftn, mainly over northern portions of the FA. It will
still be mainly VFR, but brief flight restrictions are possible
Wed aftn (best chance at SBY and little to no chance across
southern VA and NE NC). Dry/VFR for the rest of the week into
Sat.
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&&

.MARINE...
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As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Shower and storm activity expected across the waters later this
afternoon and evening, with strong wind gusts possible. Outside of
storms, breezy conditions expected with a short-fused SCA in effect
for the bay through this evening.

Winds are southerly 10-20 kt this afternoon in response to a
slowly approaching cold front from the west (highest over the
Chesapeake Bay). Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft. These winds
continue through at least this evening, so have opted to raise a
short-fused SCA for the bay through 23z/7 PM. While a few gusts
to 25 kt are possible over the ocean (outside of storms),
thinking is this event is marginal enough to hold off on SCAs
there. These winds should also push seas across the N to 3-4 ft,
with perhaps some 5 ft waves briefly this evening. Convective
showers and thunderstorms are also expected over the waters this
afternoon into this evening. Any elevated winds of this nature
will be handled with special marine warnings as necessary. The
front crosses the area late tonight/early Tuesday, turning winds
to the W or NW. Winds again shift to the S for Tue aftn, but
will only be 5-10 kt, as the front meanders near or over the
area. A second, reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air could
bring another period of stronger NW winds late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Winds could briefly approach SCA criteria
during this period, but largely looks sub-SCA at this time.
Could briefly see another brief surge early Friday. Otherwise,
high pressure builds toward the region to end the week and start
the weekend, favoring lighter winds. After tonight, seas
generally remain 2-3 ft through the period.

A low risk is currently forecast for all beaches tomorrow
(Tuesday), but will need to watch the northern beaches again if
any southerly winds develop.
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...SW