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179
FXUS61 KALY 281855
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
255 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this
afternoon as an upper level disturbance tracks over the region
under partly cloudy skies along with much lower humidity. A few
showers linger tonight, especially in the higher terrain, before
a secondary cold front tomorrow results in increased shower and
thunderstorm coverage, especially south of Interstate 90. Much
cooler and drier air arrives Thursday before a warming trend
ensues for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Our upper level trough and associated cold pool aloft continue
advancing eastward across eastern NY into western New England
today. Scattered showers have developing along the leading edge
of the cold pool with showers now in the Mohawk Valley, Capital
District into southern VT which continue pushing southward.
Morning clouds have given way to more breaks of sun as mid-
level moisture dries out and deeper mixing ensues beneath the
steepening lapse rates.

Speaking of steeper mid-level lapse rates, a few isolated to
scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
thanks to lapse rates reaching 6.5 - 7C/km under the incoming
cold pool. SPC has outlined our entire area in general thunder
which matches with our expectation. Some brief downpours are
possible under any short-lived storm.

Otherwise, the deeper boundary layer mixing has kept winds
breezy with southwesterly to westerly gusts up to 25kts,
especially down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District due
to channeled flow. With mild air still in place aloft (10C at
850hPa on the ALY 12 UTC sounding), afternoon high temperatures
should reach into the mid to upper 70s with even low 80s in the
mid-Hudson Valley. Cooler temperatures in the southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens thanks to increased cloud
coverage only reaching into the 60s. Temperatures in the wake of
the scattered showers likely trend cooler in the low to mid 70s.

Heading into tonight, moist cyclonic flow continues as the upper
level disturbance and trough tracks overhead. This will keep
cloud coverage and milder temperatures around. Some showers are
still possible, especially in the southern Adirondacks,
northern Catskills and southern Greens, as westerly flow
upslopes the terrain. Overnight lows only drop into the mid to
upper 50s thanks to the clouds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Our upper level trough and cold pool aloft remains overhead
for tomorrow with a secondary cold front and trough axis on the
approach. The moist cyclonic flow will keep skies partly to
mostly cloudy once again, especially once we reach our respective
convective temperature. High temperatures fall a few degrees
below Tuesday`s highs only reaching into the low to mid 70s with
60s in the hill towns and higher terrain. As a secondary cold
front tracks through the region from northwest to southeast
midday into the afternoon, winds shift from westerly to
northerly and look to provide decent low-level forcing to
generate scattered showers. Dew points rise into the mid-50s
south of I-90 which, when combined with steepening mid-level
lapse rates reaching 6.5 to 7C/km, will support sufficient
instability. CAMs and high res guidance are in good agreement
with SB CAPE values climb up to 500 - 1000J/kg by midday into
the afternoon. As the wind shift boundary and upper level trough
approach, a few thunderstorms will likely develop with the best
chances near and south of I-90. Severe weather is not expected
but any storm can produce brief downpours.

Troughing continues into Wednesday night with our wind shift
boundary/secondary cold front stalling near or just south of
the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, and NW CT. With a compact
shortwave rotating around the base of the trough and interacting
with the boundary overnight, additional showers are possible
again mainly south of I-90 Wednesday night. Some lingering
instability Wednesday evening could support isolated
thunderstorms. Incoming dry air across the southern Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley, and Upper Hudson Valley will support at least
partial clearing skies overnight while areas south of I-90
likely stay mainly cloudy. Where clouds can partially clear
temperatures should cool into the low to mid 40s thanks to the
northerly wind shift advecting in a cooler and drier air mass.
Areas further south should remain milder in the low to mid 50s
thanks to the clouds.

Expecting a seasonably cool and mainly dry day for Thursday as
northerly winds advect in a cooler and much drier air mass from
Canada. With the boundary shifting further south and the
shortwave from Wednesday night exiting into New England by early
morning, Thursday has trended drier. In fact, morning clouds
should given way to increasing sun through the day with
decreasing dew points. PWATs even drop to 0.30 - 0 50" as
northerly winds become a bit breezy during the afternoon as
large scale high pressure builds into western NY/PA tightening
the sfc pressure gradient. Increased winds a bit from NBM to
show winds gusts reaching up to 20kts during diurnal peaking
heating hours. While the incoming air mass is quite cool (850
hPa isotherms +5 to +7C), the enhanced boundary layer mixing
should help afternoon temperatures reach into the low 70s in the
Hudson and Mohawk Valley with low to mid 60s in the hill towns
and higher terrain. Otherwise, POPs has trended lower with only
slight chance POPs now for portions of western New England and
rain-free forecast elsewhere.

Ideal radiational cooling expected Thursday night thanks to
clearing skies and northerly winds maintaining a cool/dry
Canadian air mass. With dew points dropping into the 30s to low
40s and winds turning light/variable in response to high
pressure building eastward, expecting chilly temperatures
Thursday night. Blended in NBM10th percentile guidance to
capture the chilly temperature potential. Morning lows should
drop into the mid to upper 40s with upper 30s to low 40s in the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
A stretch of very pleasant summer-like weather is expected
Friday through the beginning of next week. Our upper level
trough exits out to sea on Friday with subsidence building into
the Northeast for the weekend as an amplified ridge axis builds
eastward. This will provide a stretch of dry weather and
comfortable humidity levels as northerly winds on the east side
of the incoming ridge maintain a fetch of dry air from Canada
directed into the Northeast. Temperatures initially will start
out seasonable but trend warmer through the weekend as the upper
level ridge axis shifts into New England, allowing a
southwesterly return flow. Highs likely reach into the upper 70s
to low 80s Saturday and Sunday before trending even warmer by
Monday and Tuesday. The ridging will support plenty of sunshine
this weekend so it will feel even warmer when out in the sun.

There are some discrepancies on how the pattern evolves by early
next week as guidance indicates the potential for some
shortwaves to track into the Northeast which support some
scattered showers and thunderstorms but there is still too much
spread to pin point the exact location, durations or coverage of
any precipitation activity. We show slight chance and chance
POPs increasing in coverage by early next week to represent
this potential.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...All terminals currently seeing VFR
conditions, which should generally be the theme through the rest of
the afternoon. Scattered showers are expected across the region this
afternoon, and some brief MVFR vsby reductions are possible if any
showers move over one of the terminals. Have handled this with VCSH
and tempo groups through this afternoon. Showers diminish early
tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Another batch of showers
is possible tonight, mainly between 6-12z at GFL and possibly
ALB/PSF. Initially VFR conditions trend down to MVFR at these TAF
sites after 6z, lasting through around or shortly after sunrise.

Tomorrow morning, any MVFR cigs lift back to VFR with dry conditions
to start the day. Additional showers develop by late morning at
ALB/PSF/POU, so have included VCSH groups at these TAF sites for the
last few hours of the TAF valid period. Outside of showers, mainly
SCT to BKN mid-level clouds and VFR conditions should prevail
tomorrow morning.

Winds will be from the west/southwest this afternoon at 5-10 kt with
some gusts of 15-20 kt, especially at ALB/PSF. WInds diminish to
around 5-8 kt from the west at ALB/PSF after sunset tonight, and
become light and variable at 5 kt or less at GFL/POU. Winds tomorrow
morning increase to 5-10 kt from the west at ALB, but remain at 5 kt
or less from the west/northwest at all other terminals.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Thursday, the combination of temperatures in the 60s
to 70s and dew points in the 30s to 40s will lead to minimum RH
values between 30 and 40%. Northwesterly wind gusts may reach 15-20
mph as well during the afternoon. Most areas saw at least a quarter
to half inch of rain yesterday, and additional showers are expected
this afternoon and again tomorrow. While this should limit the
overall fire weather concerns, special weather statements may be
considered depending on the coverage of showers today/tomorrow and
how much fuels dry out between now and Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...Main