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377
FXUS61 KBGM 222345
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Mild conditions persist through the overnight with clouds
beginning to fill back in ahead of the next system. Scattered
rain showers move into the region tomorrow morning lasting
through Monday night. Relatively active pattern continues this
week with a chance of rain showers every day.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
625 PM Update...
Some isolated showers have developed over the western Catskills
up to the Mohawk Valley, mostly due to a combination of daytime
heating, orographic lift, and southerly 850mb winds with
northerly 500mb winds. This has allowed stationary showers to
develop over the past couple hours across the aforementioned
region. These showers should dissipate in the next hour or two
as we loose daytime heating. The rest of the forecast remains on
track with rain showers moving into the region from the west
later tonight.


245 PM Update...

Sharp upper level ridge briefly holds through the remainder of
today. Mainly been a pleasant first day of autumn with a mix of sun
and clouds this afternoon along with highs in the low to mid
70s. Mild conditions continue into the evening as well with
overnight lows ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s over the
eastern portion of our area and ranging in the mid 50s to low
60s over the western portion. Clouds will move in tonight ahead
of the next system, therefore hindering any fog formation.

A weak short wave begins to push into the region on Monday bringing
a chance of showers back into the forecast. Showers will gradually
progress from west to east Monday morning. Southeasterly flow
should delay precipitation from moving in any time sooner.
Otherwise scattered showers are expected to persist through the
afternoon and linger into the overnight period. Not expecting
much in terms of rainfall totals, amounts under a quarter of an
inch are expected.through the afternoon and linger into the
overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM Update...
The midweek period will continue to be a battle between stable
dry low level air feeding in from high pressure to our
northeast, and moisture aloft from disturbances embedded within
southwesterly mid-to-upper level flow. The end result will be
plenty of clouds, along with waves of showers at times and
perhaps isolated thunder.

Initially, surface high pressure extending down from New
England, will have the upper hand in keeping things stable.
Confidence has increased that areas east of I-81 will be mainly
dry during the day even though clouds will be thickening. Even
to the west, any showers will tend to be spotty and light.
Clouds will hold temperatures in the 60s for highs, though lower
elevations along the NY Thruway as well as the Wyoming Valley in
PA could get close to 70.

A better wave and lobe of deeper moisture are projected to pass
Tuesday night into Wednesday, along with some forced ascent
from the left exit region of a jet aloft. This will be coupled
with a modest low level jet in the 925-850mb feeding in moisture
above the stable surface layer. Amounts do not look that heavy,
but showers will be likely during that period. Elevated yet
limited instability aloft could also lead to isolated thunder
along the wave itself, but mostly just showers are anticipated.
Copious clouds will prevent temperatures from falling below
upper 40s-upper 50s Tuesday night, followed by highs of only
upper 50s-mid 60s Wednesday. Downsloping of southeasterly winds
could get the Finger Lakes-Syracuse areas more into the upper
60s-near 70. By Wednesday night, upper ridging will start nosing
in to make moisture shallower. Showers may still be around in
the evening, but should diminish with lows of 50s-near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM update...
Uncertainty exists for whether an upper low will swing close
enough to the area of wraparound showers Thursday, otherwise
odds are increasing for a mainly dry weekend ahead.

Amplified blocking pattern is become evident late this week,
into next weekend. Some models still dig a quick upper low in
our vicinity Thursday, with resultant scattered showers, but
others shoot it more towards New England. Either way, a trend
towards our area getting situated in upper ridging is evident by
the weekend, between a broad cutoff low somewhere over the
South-Central U.S. and at least some cyclonic upper flow
lingering over New England. This would increase the odds of us
having a quieter stretch of weather Friday through next weekend.
This also, at least for now, keeps any tropical concerns at bay
for us even though there may be some development in the Gulf of
Mexico this week.

Being many days away, and with models having been inconsistent
lately, it is not wise to totally bank on dry weather just yet
but the trends do favor it. Probability of precipitation is only
in the 10-20 percent range for that time period in the latest
iteration of the forecast, with temperatures near or slightly
above climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

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745 PM Update

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the
overnight period as mid and high level clouds overspread the
region from the west. These clouds should act to prevent valley
fog formation, as the radiational cooling will be interrupted.

Showers begin to work their way into the western portion of our
region early Monday morning (09-12z) with MVFR Ceilings arriving
at ELM, ITH and BGM by around 12z. Conditions then deteriorate
with more showers and MVFR Fuel Alt ceilings expected to impact
ELM/ITH/BGM during the Monday afternoon hours. SYR and AVP fall
to MVFR with light rain showers during the afternoon hours as
well. RME looks to remain VFR through the end of the period.

East-southeast winds will increase between 6-15 kts later
tonight and especially during the day on Monday

.Outlook...

Monday Night Through Tuesday...Restrictions possible with
showers.

Wednesday through Friday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ES/MJM