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158
FXUS61 KBUF 120624
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
224 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers and storms will be possible overnight across western
New York. Hot and humid today, with a chance of a few afternoon
showers or a thunderstorm during peak heating. A cold front will
near the region on Sunday with widespread showers and thunderstorms,
some of which could produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Drier weather returns Monday, with somewhat cooler
temperatures and less humidity.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Convection over Lk Erie will impact the area shortly after 06Z and
then move east and weaken. After that...mainly dry weather will
resume as we head into and through the morning hours. After some
cloudiness early on, skies will begin to break and the heat and
humidity will build this afternoon. We should see mercury readings
reach the mid-upper 80s with low 90s in the Genesee Valley and the
lake plains south of Lake Ontario. Dewpoints are forecast in the
upper 60s to near 70F. This will result in heat indices in the
mid to upper 90s along the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and
northern Finger Lakes. Heat advisories have been hoisted for
these areas. That said...there is one other thing to watch as
the heat builds this afternoon, CAMs show convection firing up
again just east of the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region
after 21Z. It`s likely associated with the convectively enhanced
shortwave energy working over the top of the mid-level ridge. Have
nudged NBM PoPs up a bit to reflect this potential.

Otherwise...muggy and mild tonight ahead of the approaching trough
and cold front. There will be a continued chance of showers or a
thunderstorm. Air conditioner will definitely be cranking as temps
will `not` drop very far, with many locales in the low 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Another warm and humid day expected Sunday, but it does not
look quite as hot as Saturday. Some of the warmest heat indices
could still get into the lower 90s along the lake plains/Genesee
Valley/northern Finger Lakes. All this heat and humidity will
be ahead of an approaching cold front slowly pushing into the
region, resulting in increasing cover coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Precipitable water values rising to 2+" will
bring the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns will
certainly be elevated during this time, especially from slower
moving thunderstorms combined with somewhat lower 3 hour flash
flood guidance in the 2-2.5" inch range. The greatest threat
will be from the interior Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes
and east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After the mid-level trough`s axis passes across the eastern Great
Lakes and into New England Monday, ridging will build overhead
through mid week ahead of the next trough`s passage later in the
week. This all being said, as the corresponding cold front from
Sunday finishes exiting eastern New York Monday morning, dry weather
will return and last through much of the first half of the week.
While dry, the building ridge aloft will support southwest winds to
advect in warm Gulf air into western and north central New York
supporting hot and humid weather, featuring heat indices well into
the 80s and even 90s by Wednesday.

Guidance continues to support timing and strength differences with
the next longwave trough and associated cold front`s arrival. This
being said, kept a chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
night through Friday. Additionally, with the front`s arrival expect
an alleviation in the heat and humidity for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Convection over Lk Erie will potentially bring about brief lower
vsbys and cigs to KJHW, KBUF, and KIAG through 08Z. After that...VFR
will resume at all terminals as we head into the early morning
hours. Additionally...there is a `low` potential for some patchy fog
across southeastern Cattaraugus and southern Allegany counties,
which if it forms will dissipate after sunrise.

VFR for much of the daytime hours, as the heat builds there will be
a renewed chance for a few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
into the early evening, especially from the Finger Lakes eastward.
Any heavier shower or thunderstorm will again have the possibility
of producing a localized brief period of IFR or below conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...Showers and thunderstorms likely with
restrictions possible.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Light winds and minimal wave action today, there will be a chance of
an isolated shower or thunderstorm. A slow moving cold front will
bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
Sunday night. Winds pick up a bit ahead and with the front but
remain well below any headline criteria.

Winds remain fairly light Sunday night behind the front through
Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the lakes.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR