Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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622 FXUS61 KBUF 141800 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front could touch off a shower or two across the North Country late this afternoon and evening...otherwise high pressure moving in from the Upper Great Lakes will supply us with fantastic weather for the weekend. Oppressive heat and humidity will then DOMINATE our weather next week with dangerously high apparent temperatures...peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Delightful weather with wall to wall sunshine will be in place for the remainder of the afternoon...although a weak cold front sagging south from the Ottawa valley could support a passing shower or two across the North country. Tonight...expansive high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will slowly drift to the southeast towards our region. While some clouds wil be found across the North country to start...this scenario will promote moonlit skies tonight with temperatures dipping to below normal levels. Mins will range from the mid 50s in most areas to the mid and upper 40s across much of the Srn Tier and also across Lewis county. The large area of high pressure will move directly over our region Saturday and Saturday night. This will support mainly clear skies... although it will be on the cool side of normal with Saturday afternoon temperatures only in the 60s to near 70. Mins Sat night will be similar to those of tonight...if not a degree or two lower. Enjoy this pleasant weather now...as dangerously oppressive heat and humidity is guaranteed for much of next week.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Superb weather for the weekend as an expansive ridge will build over the Great Lakes. This will keep the area dry, and outside of a few passing mid/high clouds Sunday, under mostly clear skies. As the surface ridge crests east of the region Sunday and moves off the East Coast by Sunday night, temps will get a boost into the mid/upper 70s, likely a few readings in the 80s across far western NY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...Dangerous Heat Wave To Impact The Region Next Week... A very strong 500mb ridge will anchor itself across much of the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through much of the week, which will dominate the sensible weather across the eastern Great Lakes. NAEFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate this ridge will be of anomalous strength with 500mb heights in the 99th percentile, if not exceeding the maximum climatological values for the Northeast for nearly the whole week. Latest runs of the deterministic ECMWF in particular continue to forecast overhead 500mb heights reaching 600dam, with coincident 850H temps near +24C at times. Deep anticyclonic flow around the resultant Bermuda High will cause hot, humid air to surge across the eastern CONUS. Given the strong signal from nearly all available long range guidance packages, confidence is high in a prolonged stretch of oppressive summer heat and humidity lasting through much of the week. Forecast thinking has not changed much from previous updates in regards to expected temps and heat indices next week. Daytime highs Monday will feature widespread upper 80s and lower 90s, remaining a bit cooler across the North Country in the upper 70s to mid 80s as slightly cooler airmass initially lingers in the region. By Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected. Highest temps will be in the interior valleys, while cooler temps will be found just northeast of both lakes (including the Buffalo area) as a persistent southwest flow advects cooler marine air off the lakes. This heat comes as dewpoints climb into the low 70s, which will cause overall heat indicies in the afternoon to climb into the mid 90s to lower 100s. Temps are expected to be a few degrees lower on Thursday, back down into the upper 80s and low 90s. For context, daytime highs average the upper 70s for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown during the days of June 17-21. Even though heat indices will peak in the afternoon hours each day next week, nighttime will offer very little (if any) relief. Low temperatures from Monday night onwards are expected to only be in the low to mid 70s, with high humidity likely making for VERY muggy sleeping weather. Otherwise...The primary forecast uncertainty through much of next week continues to be on convective potential. Guidance continues to indicate a series of "ridge rider" showers and storms periodically cresting over the ridge and into the eastern Great Lakes region, the first batch of which could potentially arrive as early as Monday night. In addition, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s, daytime surface based instability will likely be present each afternoon...Though the strong ridge should preclude much of the diurnal convective potential with strong capping expected to be in place. Given the low confidence in shower and storm timing and coverage, PoPs values remain on the low side (15-30%) through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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While a weak secondary cold front could touch off a shower across the North country late this afternoon and evening...fair VFR weather with light winds can be expected through the TAF period. Outlook... Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
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&& .MARINE... Westerly winds behind a front should remain below 15 knots today, before becoming more northerly and weakening tonight. High pressure will build back across the waters with light winds and generally favorable boating conditions during the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...RSH MARINE...AR/RSH/TMA