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890
FXUS61 KBUF 110531
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
131 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Extensive cloud cover will continue much of today. There may be some
patchy drizzle this morning, then a few isolated showers this
afternoon, but most of the time will be rain free. High pressure
will bring a return to dry weather tonight, with dry weather lasting
Wednesday through most of Thursday. Today will still be cool, but
this will be followed by a notable warming trend through the middle
of the week. A cold front will bring another round of showers and
scattered thunderstorms Thursday night through a portion of Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Widespread low stratus will persist this morning across the entire
region. Radar imagery continues to show some weak returns, likely
marking some patchy light drizzle falling from the low overcast.

A deep mid level trough will continue to move slowly east across New
England today through tonight. Moist cyclonic flow on the western
flank of the trough will persist across the eastern Great Lakes
today. The moist northwest flow, enhanced by some lake induced
instability and upslope flow, will continue to produce a wealth of
low clouds through at least the first half of today. The clouds will
start to gradually scatter out later this afternoon, first over and
near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The clearing will gradually
progress into the higher terrain of inland areas this evening.

Patchy drizzle will continue in some areas this morning. This
afternoon will be mostly dry, although a few isolated showers are
still possible across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier,
Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario from persistent upslope flow
and modest steepening of low level lapse rates with daytime heating.

High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley tonight, supporting the ongoing clearing trend. Expect some
patchy fog overnight, primarily in the Southern Tier valleys.

Temperatures will remain cool. Highs today will range from the mid
60s across lower elevations to around 60 for higher terrain. Lows
tonight will drop back into the 40s across inland areas, with lower
50s along the lakeshores.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A broad ridge of surface high pressure will build across the eastern
third of CONUS Wednesday through Wednesday night. This will
bring fair weather to the region and mostly clear skies during
this period. Seasonably warm on Wednesday with highs in the
lower to mid 70s.

A shortwave will pass by well to the north on Thursday, meanwhile
the surface high will slide off the Atlantic coast. This will lead
to an increasing southwesterly flow which will push afternoon
temperatures into the 80s at most locations Thursday. For the most
part, the shortwave will be too far north but there will be a slight
chance of afternoon showers inland from the lakes.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The weather briefly turns more active for the end of the week and to
start the long term period. A trough will track across the region
Thursday night into Friday. A cold front associated with an area of
low pressure well to the north in Canada will track toward and
across the area. As this cold front tracks toward and across the
area, another sfc low will track northeast along the front.

Shower chances increase through Thursday night and into Friday as
the trough, cold front and sfc low approach from the west. A warm
sector out ahead of the cold front will help to increase
instability, with the potential for some showers and storms out
ahead of the front. The showers will become better organized and
increase in coverage Friday morning as the sfc low approaches. The
sfc low looks like it should become a bit stronger as a shortwave
trough tracks into the area. Thunderstorms will also be possible out
ahead of and along the cold front as it tracks east. Model guidance
as of now indicates there could be some heavier rainfall with the
showers on Friday as the sfc low and front pass across the area.
Showers are expected to taper off from west to east during the
afternoon hours with most of WNY dry by around lunchtime. Timing
will need to be monitored in the coming days as upstream development
will certainly cause changes to timing/speed of the systems.

A building ridge and large sfc high pressure system will start to
move in by Friday night with fair and pleasant conditions expected
through at least Sunday night as both features center over and then
shift east of the region.

There is still a lot of uncertainty among guidance for the next
potential for showers as some models are slower with the ridge
moving out. As of now it looks like the next chance for some showers
will be early next week on Monday.

Temperatures for the long term period will be mostly near to
slightly above normal for Friday and Saturday. As the ridge
continues to build into the region and the sfc highs shifts east,
the temperatures will warm to above normal with highs on Monday
reaching at least 10 degrees above normal as it looks right now. The
passing cold front on Friday wont be accompanied by too much cold
air and the incoming ridge moderates the temperatures within the
airmass fairly quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A mid level low will continue to spin across New England today, with
cool cyclonic flow in its wake producing extensive stratus and
stratocumulus across the eastern Great Lakes. Widespread MVFR CIGS
will continue through the first half of today.

The system will finally begin to move off the east coast later this
afternoon and tonight, with the cloud deck gradually improving to
VFR and scattering out. VFR will prevail tonight in most areas,
although some patchy river valley fog will develop across the
Southern Tier with local IFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Light winds will return today on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with
residual wave action gradually settling down after a number of windy
days as of late. Relatively light winds will continue through
Wednesday night.

A cold front will then move across the eastern Great Lakes late
Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest winds will increase ahead
of the front Thursday, with winds remaining elevated through Friday.
This will bring choppy conditions to both lakes.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock