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413
FXUS62 KCAE 160711
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
311 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front moving through the area stalls to the south of the
forecast area today. Thus, expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. High
pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal
temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming
week. Unsettled conditions are possible by late in the week
into next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper ridge continues to build over the Southeast today and
tonight, allowing for continued warmth across the forecast area.
At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to meander through
the forecast area, which should keep highs a few degrees cooler
than Saturday. A surface high of the Mid-Atlantic coast will
allow for onshore flow over our neck of the woods, bringing more
moisture into the area. As a result, expect isolated to
scattered showers and storms to develop and spread westward
through the day. Unlike yesterday, the chances for precipitation
cover the entire forecast area. With the ridge settling in
overhead, temperatures aloft are expected to be warmer than
yesterday. Model soundings also hint at a capping inversion,
which will likely limit the severe threat. However, inverted V
soundings suggest some gusty winds could accompany any
thunderstorms today.

Despite the cold front moving through today, temperatures are
expected to climb to the lower to mid 90s. Did go with a
forecast high on the higher end of the model solution spectrum
because of the ridge building overhead and guidance was a few
degrees too cool for many locations yesterday. If clouds are
more widespread earlier than anticipated, highs today could be a
bit cooler than forecast. Overnight lows remain near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Monday and Monday night: The center of the strong upper level ridge
will shift just slightly northward, with surface high pressure
centered well off the New England coast supporting an onshore low
level flow across the area. The deepest moisture appears to shift
west of the area, and the combination of lowering precipitable water
values and strong subsidence from the upper ridge should preclude
the development of any convection across the area. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal for highs, generally around 90 or
in the lower 90s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: The upper level ridge will become
centered over the northern Mid Atlantic region, but the low level
onshore flow will persist. Overall, very little change in expected
conditions from Monday, with enough subsidence and dry air in place
to keep conditions rain-free.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Ensembles show a very strong upper level ridge over much of New
England and the Mid Atlantic during the mid to late week period,
with an inverted upper trough retrograding toward the southeast US
coast beneath the ridge late in the week. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook and long range ensembles suggest this is an area to
continue to monitor for possible tropical development. Overall,
onshore flow/increasing moisture could lead to increasingly
unsettled conditions across the area with rain chances ramping
up Friday into next weekend.

Temperatures will be near normal at the start of the long term
period, then rise well above normal by the weekend as strong ridging
builds back southward across the Carolinas.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR/MVFR conditions anticipated through the TAF
period.

Some mid level clouds are being noted over the southern portions
of the forecast area, but have generally cleared the terminals.
A thin layer of smoke has also been observed at CAE/CUB, but no
there have been no vis restrictions. With the rain on Saturday
at OGB, some MVFR fog has developed. MVFR fog is also possible
at AGS now that skies are clearing out there. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms could bring restrictions to the
terminals this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low
to include in the TAFs at this point. Light and variable winds
become southeast between 5 and 10 kts after 16z-17z and
returning to light and variable after about 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$