-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
727
FXUS61 KCAR 250202
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1002 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain ridged across the region tonight into
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach Wednesday night, cross
the region Thursday, then exit across the Maritimes Friday.
High pressure will build across the region Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
10 pm update...Focus for tonight is low level moisture/stratocu
advecting westward out of New Brunswick. In additional, cirrus
is approaching the area from the west. Expect increasing clouds
later tonight into Wednesday morning. This led to some
adjustments in the low temperature forecast with lower lows
further west in the forecast area where clear skies hang on
longer. Towards the eastern international border, existing lows
were tweaked up slightly.

Previous discussion...
High pressure remains centered near Labrador, while ridging south
across the forecast area tonight through Wednesday. Low pressure
lifts from the Great Lakes to western Quebec province Wednesday,
drawing a warm front toward New England. Expect mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies early tonight, then partly/mostly
cloudy skies overnight. Patchy, mostly river valley, fog is
also possible late tonight through early Wednesday. Expect
partly/mostly cloudy skies early Wednesday. Clouds then increase
during the afternoon in advance of the approaching warm front.
Isolated showers could also begin to approach northwest
portions of the forecast area later Wednesday afternoon. Low
temperatures tonight should generally range from the lower to
mid 40s north, to the mid to upper 40s Downeast. However,
locally colder temperatures are possible in areas of lesser
cloud cover. High temperatures Wednesday will range from around
60 to the lower 60s north, to the mid 60s Downeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low pressure system will dive southeast from Canada starting
Wednesday night as high pressure moves away to the east. The low
will track through western Maine on Thursday and into the Gulf
of Maine by Thursday night. This system will bring a widespread
rain event to the region. Some light rain will be possible after
midnight Wednesday night, with steadier rain arriving Thursday
morning. Steady rain then continues before tapering to showers
Thursday night. As the low exits south of Nova Scotia on Friday,
a few showers will remain possible, mainly in the North.

Despite the low pressure systems continental origins, onshore
flow ahead of the system will provide ample moisture over the
area. Based on 12z model guidance, decided to increase QPF
somewhat. Generally expecting on the order of one half to one
inch of rain across the area. Dynamics are fairly strong with
this system, and models do hint at a potential deformation area
over central or northern parts of the region. Thus, its not out
of the question that there could be some locally higher amounts,
but not enough confidence to nail down the exact locations yet.
Regardless, given recent dry conditions, not expecting any hydro
issues with this system.

With the rain and low pressure system tracking south of the
area, high temperatures on Thursday will be on the cool side.
Expect upper 50s to lower 60s in most places. Friday will be a
few degrees warmer, mainly in the 60s, thanks to lighter
precipitation and perhaps even some clearing. Low temperatures
both Wednesday night and Thursday night will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A high pressure system building in from some upper level riding
is expected to stay in the forecast region during the extended
period, bringing fair weather and mostly clear skies. Any
lingering showers Friday night will move out of the area by
early Saturday morning.

This weekend and early next week has high temperatures in the
upper 60s, with light northerly winds. Minimal cloud cover and
light winds could result in some overnight radiational cooling.
Light winds with high relative humidity could also cause some
fog development in river valley areas. Overnight lows are
forecast to stay in the upper 40s throughout the region.

There is a chance for some light showers to occur Tuesday night
into Wednesday, but model uncertainty remains high at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR early tonight. MVFR/IFR possible late tonight into
Wednesday morning, with variable conditions in any patchy fog.
VFR/MVFR Wednesday afternoon. Light and variable winds tonight.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast/south
Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night...MVFR lowering to IFR/LIFR with -RA and BCFG.
S-SE wind 5-10 kts.

Thursday...Mainly IFR/LIFR with RA. BCFG in the AM. S-SE wind
5-15 kts.

Thursday night...IFR/LIFR early with RA, improving to MVFR late
with -SHRA. S-SE winds 5-10 kts, becoming N-NE late.

Friday...MVFR with -SHRA trending to VFR late. N-NE winds 5-15
kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. N-NE winds 5-10 kts.

Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. Winds light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds may approach borderline Small Craft Advisory
levels on the outer waters Thursday night through Friday night
as low pressure tracks through the Gulf of Maine. Otherwise,
wind and seas should remain below SCA levels into the coming
weekend. Rain may limit visibility for Thursday into Thursday
night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Brennan/Clark
Aviation...Norcross/Clark
Marine...Norcross/Clark