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244
FXUS61 KCAR 160314
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1114 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area through Sunday and shift
south of the area on Monday. The region will remain under the
influence of high pressure through later next week. A cold front
will approach from the northwest by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
11:10 PM Update...Forecast remains on track with a clear cool
night across the region. Adjusted late evening temps to low 40s
in the NW Valleys and low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Previous discussion:
A surface 1026mb high pressure system slowly drifts east into
New England tonight with gradually clearing skies. Winds will
begin to relax across the area tonight and much cooler air is
associated with this high. Modeled soundings show decent chance
of decoupling tonight that will result in potentially patchy to
areas of frost in the North Woods with mid 30s expected. Have
hoisted a Frost Advisory for areas west of Route 11 and NW of
Baxter State Park from 2am-6am tomorrow. Elsewhere, expecting
lows generally 40-45F with warmest spots 45-47F along the
Downeast coast. There could be some patchy river valley fog in
the AM but confidence in that was a little low to add. Tomorrow
the surface high moves overhead with beautiful sunshine
expected and seasonable temperatures. Highs tomorrow top out in
the low to mid 70s with light NW winds. Minimum RHs bottom out
in the 30-35 percent range.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Temperatures will remain fairly cool Sunday night, but winds
will switch to be more southerly. This will start the trend of
increasing humidity ahead of the heat wave expected to start
Tuesday. On Monday, the remains of a potential MCS will move
across the area, keeping clouds across the area and bringing
some showers. This will help keep things a cool on Monday and
daytime highs will be seasonable. By Monday night, increasing
humidity will keep temps from falling too far, so nighttime lows
will be much closer to 60, a harbinger of what is to come. On
Tuesday, daytime highs will rise into the 90s across most of the
area. Downeast may see a short reprieve from the heat, since
lingering clouds will keep temperatures low during the day. Heat
indices will be in the 90s for most of the area and heat
advisories may need to be considered for some of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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9:34 PM Update: Temperatures dropping off rapidly this evening
with m/u 40s in the cooler northern valleys as of 9 PM. A dry
and cool air mass will allow temperatures to drop into the l/m
30s in the sheltered valleys in the north woods where a frost
advisory remains in effect for late tonight. Other than
ingesting the latest observations and making a few minor tweaks
the ongoing forecast is in fine shape. With strong ridging
overhead and anomalous 500 hPa heights, temperatures will begin
to increase Tuesday night and a heat wave is expected to last
through at least Thursday. Confidence is high that this event
will occur and that daytime highs on Wednesday will be record
breaking for many locations. More importantly, nighttime temps
will also be record high minimums, preventing much recovery from
occurring over night. More specifics on records are included in
the climate section below.

Confidence is high on this event occurring and that Wednesday
looks to be the hottest day, with overnight lows in the 70s,
possibly even the mid 70s for some locations. NBM deterministic
is running on the low side compared to the ensemble spread, so
used the 75th percentile for highs, and 50th percentile for
lows Tuesday through Thursday night. Thursday will cool down
slightly, especially across the north, where an approaching cold
front will generate thunderstorms during the day. However, the
impact of cumulative days above 90F should not be underestimated
and heat impacts will continue on Thursday.

Cooler temperatures are expected on Friday, mainly across the
north, with the post-frontal air mass. Some uncertainty remains
at how far south the cool air will drop, so temps may be a
little warmer for the Central Highlands and southward than
currently forecast. By Saturday, model solutions diverge
greatly, with GFS bringing a front through, with EC keeping high
pressure over the region. Given this divergence in the model
solutions, confidence in the forecast at the very end of the
period is currently low.
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&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through Sunday. River valley fog may affect
KPQI and KHUL late tonight, but confidence was not high enough
to go with reduced visibility at the terminals, but did mention
BCFG and SCT002 in the Tafs to give an indication that lower
conditions are possible. NW wind mostly 5 knots or less
overnight, slowly shifting W and SW later Sun.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday night-Wednesday...VFR. W/SW wind 5-10kts through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA through
tomorrow. Winds less than 20kt and seas generally 2-3ft.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria
through the duration of the short term.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 19th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (99)96 in 2020
Bangor (97)95 in 1995
Millinocket (98)95 in 2020
Houlton (97)95 in 2020
Frenchville (98)93 in 2020

June 20th Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (76)68 in 1970
Bangor (72)72 in 1931
Millinocket (74)69 in 1923
Houlton (74)67 in 1976
Frenchville (74) 65 in 2016

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...Frost Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ001-003-004.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Sinko/Bloomer
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...CB/Sinko/LF
Marine...CB/Sinko/LF
Climate...Buster/Sinko