-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
934
FXUS61 KCAR 261011
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
611 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build to the east of the region through
tonight while weak low pressure passes south of the area today.
A warm front slowly approaches from the southwest Monday and
Monday night, as low pressure slowly moves into Quebec. This low
lifts slowly northeast into Central Quebec Tuesday and Tuesday
night, then slowly moves to the east into the Maritimes through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:11 AM Update: Partly to mostly cloudy across the FA early
this morning. There are weak returns showing up on radar, but
little in the way of showers making it to the ground. No
significant changes are planned to the forecast.

Previous discussion:
Although not as nice as Saturday, the weather will not be all that
bad across the FA today.  There will be weak shortwaves in the flow
that may touch off a passing shower or two, but the vast majority of
the day will be dry, and most areas will not have any rain.
There is a very weak surface low that passes south of the
coast, but with other weak mid level disturbances it is
difficult to completely say that any one spot does not at least
have the slight chance for a passing shower. Temperatures will
be seasonable with highs mostly in the mid to upper 60s north,
with low 70s in Bangor, and cooler along the coast. Riding
begins to very slowly shift east of the area tonight as low
pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. Lower clouds are
possible along the coast late tonight along with patchy fog.
Lows are expected to be in the mid 40s to low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cldnss will once again be on the increase from W to E across the
FA on Mon as a sig s/wv and associated sfc low from the Midwest
apchs the the FA. The leading edge of shwrs will enter Wrn ptns
of the FA by late Aftn. High temps Mon will be slightly inverted
due to later arrival of thicker cld cvr across Nrn/Ern ptns of
the FA.

The leading edge of shwrs will eclipse Ern ptns of the FA Mon
Eve with more steady area of rnfl entering the FA by late Mon
Ngt, exiting Ern ptns of the FA later Tue Morn as a warm
occlusion apchs from the W, with isold to sct shwrs Tue Aftn as
a mid lvl dry slot races E ahead of the occluded front. Total
rnfl by Tue Eve will range from around a half inch across the
far NE upwards to arnd an inch ovr parts of the interior SW with
max PoPs near 100 percent across the FA late Mon Ngt into erly
Tue Morn.

Low temps Mon Ngt will be milder then Sun Ngt and high temps
Tue will likely be warmer ovr Wrn ptns of the FA which has the
best chc of getting behind the warm occlusion in the Aftn prior
to sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any remaining shwrs should end/move E of the FA ovrngt Tue Ngt.
On Wed, a secondary cold front with the arrival of the upper
trof axis will bring another round of at least sct shwrs later
Wed morn until Wed Eve, with possible tstms durg the Aftn msly
across the N and W. We did note that the 27/00z dtmnstc ECMWF
was more progressive with this feature than corresponding GFS
and CanGem models, with the blend of models favoring the slower
GFS/CanGem models attm. After mild lows Tue Ngt, high temps Wed
will be warmest ovr inland Ern ptns of the FA.

Aftwrds, long range models agree that persistence of upper
troffing or a closed upper low near the Rgn will keep cldnss,
a chc of shwrs, and cooler temps ovr the FA Wed Ngt behind the
secondary cold front, contg until Fri Eve, with long range
models differing on s/wv tmg details. Longer range models hint
at some drying late Fri Ngt into Sat as the mean upper trof/low
nudges ewrd across the Can Maritimes with slightly warmer high
temps by Sat Aftn.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR today and this evening at the Aroostook terminals
with MVFR ceilings possible after midnight with a chance for IFR
toward morning, but forecast confidence on IFR is low, but was
included in the KFVE Taf.VFR expected at KBGR and KBHB with
somewhat higher confidence that MVFR ceilings develop late this
evening, possibly lowering to IFR after midnight. Light and
variable wind through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mon...VFR clgs all TAF sites with winds
becmg mdt SE by Aftn.

Mon Ngt...all TAF sites lowering to MVFR clgs in the Eve in
shwrs and then IFR clgs/vsbys late Ngt in steady rn and patchy/
areas of fog. Lgt to mdt SE winds.

Tue...all TAF sites IFR clgs/vsbys in rn and patchy/areas of fog
in the Morn, then lifting to MVFR clgs in sct shwrs in the
Aftn. Mdt S winds.

Tue Ngt - Thu...all TAF sites MVFR - low VFR clgs with
intermittent shwrs. Chc tstms Nrn TAF sites Wed Aftn. Lgt
S winds becmg W by Wed Ngt and NW on Thu.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels today and tonight. Patchy fog possible tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns on Mon, then winds and
seas look to increase well into the SCA range Mon Ngt contg thru
Tue, before slowly subsiding Tue Ngt and Wed to marginal SCA
and then back below SCA late week. Went with blended wv model
guidance for fcst wv hts with a little more emphasis on NWPS.
Wvs will mainly have pds between 6 - 8sec durg these ptns of
the fcst.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$


Near Term...CB
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...CB/VJN
Marine...CB/VJN