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626
FXUS61 KCLE 101015
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
615 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

..12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to build over the region today and
persist through much of the week. A cold front will move through
the region by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
615 am update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track and no adjustments are
needed at this time.

Previous discussion...
A large and deep upper level trough has developed across the
Great Lakes region and the Northeast CONUS this morning. A
secondary cold front has also pushed through the area overnight.
High pressure centered northwest of the Upper Great Lakes
region will build southward across our area today. We will start
off with mostly clear or fair weather skies this morning around
sunrise. Cloud cover will increase from the north later this
morning and linger through the afternoon. Most areas will remain
dry today but there could be a few spotty lake effect rain
showers over NEOH and NWPA later today. North or northwesterly
winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph during the day with gusts up
to 30 mph possible. High temperatures will range from the upper
50s over NWPA and the lower 60s over NEOH. Across NWOH, temps
will try to climb to the middle and upper 60s.

High pressure will build over the Ohio Valley region tonight
with clearing skies. Temperatures will be rather cool with
middle to upper 40s expected away from the lakeshore. Areas
near the lake will be in the lower 50s. Light winds and mostly
sunny skies will return on Tuesday with high temps still below
average, in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warming temperatures and mostly quiet weather will be the story
through mid week as high pressure remains overhead much of the
Eastern CONUS. The high glides toward the East Coast Wednesday night
into Thursday ahead of a weak low pressure system. This low will
drag a cold front toward the Ohio Valley Thursday night bringing our
next chance for showers and storms.

Slightly below normal lows Tuesday night rise into low to mid 80s by
Wednesday. Warmer Wednesday and Thursday night as lows settle in the
mid to upper 60s. Hot by Thursday with highs roughly 5-10 degrees
above normal as they rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aforementioned cold front will continue to sweep southeastward across
the region during the day Friday with continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms through Friday evening. Another expansive high
pressure system will build over the Great Lakes region by Saturday
and keep dry weather in the forecast through the weekend.

Highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday will dip slightly by Saturday
with near normal temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Warming
up again Sunday with highs once again approaching 90s across much of
Northern Ohio, mid 80s in Northwest Pennsylvania. Expect continued
warmth beyond Sunday as per CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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VFR to pockets of MVFR ceilings are expected today. Ceilings
between 2500 feet and 3500 feet will move through during the
day. Skies will generally clear from west to east late this
afternoon into the evening. Winds will northerly today into
this evening around 10 knots. Winds will relax to 5 knot or less
tonight. Some locations will become light and variable winds
tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings are possible with scattered showers Thursday
night into early Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Upper level trough remains situated across Lake Erie and will allow
for north to northwest winds 10-15 to persist through the day today.
Onshore flow will allow for wave heights of 2-3 feet through tonight
with these choppy conditions leading to a moderate risk of rip
currents during the day today east of the Islands. High pressure
will gradually build eastward tonight and remain over the region
through the middle of the week. This will allow for much quieter
marine conditions with wind speeds under 10 knots through Tuesday
night. Southerly flow will increase during the day Wednesday and
Thursday to 10-15 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Iverson