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688
FXUS61 KCLE 071730
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface troughing will linger across the Eastern Great Lakes
today. A low pressure system will move east across the Great
Lakes on Saturday, followed by another cold front on Sunday into
Monday. High pressure will build back in across the region by
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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120 PM...Widespread cloud cover has developed across the region
early this afternoon, although lake-effect rain coverage has
remained limited thus far, likely due to the abundance of low-
level dry air from deep mixing. Wind gusts so far have been in
the 30 to 35 mph range, with some points further west as high as
40 to 45 mph, indicative of deep mixing to near 700 mb.
Widespread cloud cover across our area should limit this type of
deeper mixing, though should still see 30 to 35 mph gusts
through the rest of the afternoon with an isolated rain shower
or two.

Previous discussion...
An upper level trough is currently centered over the Upper
Great Lakes this morning with a cyclonic flow swirling over our
region. We are starting off this morning areas of clouds and
some breaks of clear skies. These variable cloudy sky conditions
will continue throughout today as colder air aloft will aid in
instablilty during daytime heating. There will also be a few
spotty rain showers passing through the area today. The slightly
better chances for scattered lake effect showers will be
confined to the Snowbelt region of NEOH and NWPA today. There
should be plenty of dry time inbetween a passing shower or two.
High temperatures will be cooler than previous days in the upper
60s to lower 70s this afternoon. It will also be rather
blustery later this morning through the afternoon with winds
gusts up to 30 to 35 mph possible.

Weak high pressure will build in from the Lower Ohio Valley
tonight. Winds will also relax after sunset this evening. Skies
will also clear out for most of the area with lingering lake
effect clouds holding on across far NEOH and NWPA tonight.
The upper level trough will lift out briefly late tonight into
Saturday. Slightly warmer air will advect in from the southwest
on Saturday which will give a boost to our high temperatures in
the middle to upper 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather in place through the short term period as a
shortwave aloft and its accompanying surface low move east across
Lake Erie Saturday night into early Sunday. This system will turn
winds northwesterly over Lake Erie leading to showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast period. Expect for these showers
and storms to lake-enhanced in nature with shower chances continuing
into the day Monday as surface troughing lingers overhead.

Overnight lows will be near normal Saturday and Sunday night. Cooler
overnight lows in the low 50s on Monday night. Near normal highs in
the mid to upper 70s Sunday with slightly cooler highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Aforementioned upper level troughing becomes more pronounced with
multiple shortwave disturbances moving across the Great Lakes
region. This will keep unsettled weather in place through the bulk
of the long term period. Anticipate for at least slight chance to
chance PoPs in place for much of next week. There is still some
uncertainty toward the end of the forecast period as the ECMWF
indicates more zonal flow and drier weather while the GFS and
Canadian show an additional upper trough and embedded shortwave
moving overhead to end the period.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the long term with slightly
below normal highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday. Much warmer by
Thursday as highs rise into the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Can`t rule out a brief non-VFR
drop from isolated lake-effect rain showers at ERI, though
confidence remains low. Otherwise, ceilings will remain above
5kft through the remainder of today and be replaced by high
cirrus overnight into Saturday.

Winds are generally out of the west early this afternoon, 15 to
20 knots with gusts of 30 to perhaps 35 knots at times. Winds
will begin to diminish this evening following sunset, less than
10 knots. Winds will begin to favor a more southwest direction
by Saturday morning out west.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in scattered rain showers/low ceilings
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Non-VFR ceilings may return
across NE OH and NW PA Sunday night into Monday.
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&&

.MARINE...
Westerly to northwesterly winds 15 to 20 knots remain in place over
the lake through the end of the week and first half of the weekend.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through the weekend. Slightly
onshore flow will allow for wave heights to build to 4-6 feet across
much of the lake through the weekend. There is a high risk for rip
currents and as such a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through
the weekend.

Low pressure will cross east Saturday night into Sunday with
lingering troughing on Monday. Wave heights briefly subside below 4
feet Saturday afternoon before building to 3-5 feet again early
Sunday morning and subsiding late Sunday night. Southwesterly to
westerly flow Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning will turn
northwesterly by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Wind speeds
through this period should remain between 15-20 knots or less.
Generally northerly flow will continue through Tuesday morning
before high pressure builds overhead and winds turn light and
variable.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ009.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for OHZ010-
     011.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for OHZ012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Iverson