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001
FXUS63 KDLH 052038
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
338 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and continuing
  into the evening. The main threats include hail up to 1 and
  wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Drier conditions heading into the weekend with scattered
  precipitation on Saturday.

- Pleasant start to the week with a more active pattern arriving
  mid- week.
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.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Following our frontal passage late last night, dewpoints in the area
are mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s as opposed to the mid to
upper 60s we saw yesterday. That being said, on the heels of that
cold front, another quick moving shortwave trough will drop out of
Canada bringing us our active weather today. The shortwave in
question is tied to a progressive flow regime straddling the
US/Canadian border with a 200mb jet exceeding 125 kts pointed
directly at central Minnesota. The shortwave trough will allow for
enough ascent for scattered thunderstorms to fire starting around
1pm and continuing until 9pm. With clouds clearing across northern
Minnesota, we are already seeing some bubbling CU fields evident of
500-1000 joules of CAPE per SPC Mesoanalysis. With the jet aloft,
bulk shear will be in the 20-40 kt range with higher values as you
go south into MPXs CWA. As storms begin to coalesce and grow over
the next few hours they should be quite widespread across our entire
CWA. However, due to the stronger shear being located further south,
the best chance of seeing a stronger storm lies south of a line
stretching from Grand Rapids to Duluth to Ashland where the
placement of >1000 joules of CAPE and bulk shear nearing 35 kts is
collocated. The main hazards we expect to see today are hail up to 1
inch and wind gusts pushing 60 mph in the strongest cores. It should
be noted that with substantial 3CAPE (>150 joules) in tandem with
low-level vorticity per the 15z RAP, an isolated funnel or brief
tornado cannot be ruled out where we have better moisture pooling
further southeast in our CWA. Storms should begin to wind down as
the sun begins to set this evening and drier conditions will take
hold.

Extended Range:

Following our storms today, a trough will build in over much of the
Great Lakes inducing subsidence across much of the Northland. This
will dry us out within NW flow keeping our dewpoints on the lower
side as well. Temperatures on Thursday will be a bit on the chillier
side with highs struggling to get out of the 50s and lower 60s.
However heading into the weekend, we should rebound into the upper
60s and lower 70s. Saturday afternoon will present us with our next
chance of rain as another shortwave drops out of Canada. With
limited moisture and a southerly track, we arent expecting much
from this system. In the wake of this system, a ridge will build in
behind this allowing for warmer conditions to return with highs
likely to touch into the upper 70s/lower 80s by early next week.
Precipitation chances will remain on the lower side until later in
the week when a more active pattern looks to begin across the
Northern Plains.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the
period with deteriorating conditions heading into Thursday
morning as MVFR clouds move into the region. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
Given the nature of the expected activity, have kept with
VCTS/VCSH with this update and will need to monitor for any
potential TEMPOs or prevailing updates. Overall conditions are
expected to remain VFR, but a brief dip in visibilities during a
stronger downpour will be possible. Briefly gusty winds will be
possible as well in storms. This activity diminishes this
evening, but another chance for light showers will arrive for
the early morning hours and into Thursday. Winds will gust to
around 20 to 25 knots this afternoon before diminishing a bit
overnight and then becoming gusty again around sunrise Thursday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
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Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening with showers lingering overnight, primarily along the
North Shore. Any storms may contain small hail, wind gusts to 40
knots and heavy downpours. Winds will remain westerly tonight at
10 to 20 knots and into Thursday with gusts to 25 to 30 knots at
the head of the lake and along the North Shore Thursday. Small
Craft Advisories will most likely be needed for this. The
westerlies remain breezy again on Friday and may lead to another
period of conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
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&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH