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598
FXUS63 KDLH 280553
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1253 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms possible tomorrow
  (20- 40%).

- Quiet weather for Wednesday and Thursday with rain chances
  returning Thursday night.

- Patchy frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
  Best chances will be across northern MN for Wed morning and NW
  WI for Thursday morning.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light rain showers are ongoing across the Northland, and are likely
more of nuisance showers for those outside trying to enjoy
their cloudy Memorial Day. Parts of SW MN have seen some
clearing today providing for some lightning and little better
convective environment. As the surface low pushes SE this
evening, some of that better instability may skirt across our
southern border, roughly along a Brainerd to Hayward line,
where a few claps of thunder may be heard. Otherwise, rain
shower chances continue to push E/SE through the evening and
into NW WI after midnight.

Tuesday`s high temperatures will be cooler, albeit still in the
60s, behind today`s system. A secondary shortwave will drop
into the region from Manitoba bringing additional rain chances.
With plenty of clouds and similar convective parameters as today
(low CAPE, low sheer), scattered airmass showers and maybe an
occasional storm will be possible across the area.

High pressure builds into the area Wednesday and Thursday
allowing high temperatures to rise back to near or just above
seasonal average, along with a short period of quiet weather.
Mostly clear skies will allow morning temperatures to drop
bringing patchy frost concerns across northern MN for Wed
morning and NW WI for Thursday morning.

Thursday night rain chances return as a troughing sets up in
the Plains setting up an unsettled pattern that will last
through the weekend. High temperatures stay right around
seasonal average through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Ongoing light to moderate showers along the North Shore and
beginning to move out of the vicinity of KDLH are pushing into
NW WI. There is another round of showers working into north-
central MN from the west, as well. Continuing to see
predominately VFR ceilings/VSBYs with these showers overnight
into this morning. Additional scattered showers develop with
daytime heating later this morning through early evening across
much of the Arrowhead, but the more scattered coverage lends
itself to more VCSH, with PROB30 groups covering the time period
where shower coverage should be at its peak. A few
thunderstorms may also be possible (30% chance) at or near KHYR
this afternoon, but confidence in location is too low with the
current forecast to include as a prevailing group. Some MVFR
ceilings are expected for KINL this morning, with MVFR
conditions also possible with any of the more moderate showers
and thunderstorms later this morning through early evening.

Outside of precipitation today, light northwest winds overnight will
turn northerly through the remainder of the TAF period with
daytime gusts of 15 to 20 knots with VFR conditions prevailing.
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&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Winds will be 15 knots or less through Tuesday night. They will
become northwest tonight and veer to north late Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night. Winds will continue to veer Wednesday becoming
onshore during the day Wednesday and remaining at or below 15 knots.
The exception on Wednesday will be in the Twin Ports area where
they will be a bit stronger.

Easterly winds will occur into Thursday and be a bit stronger yet
for all areas, generally 10 to 20 knots with a few higher gusts. The
strongest winds will occur in the Twin Ports area.

There may be some spotty thunderstorms this afternoon through
Tuesday over the far western part of the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LR
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Melde