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454
FXUS63 KDVN 071026
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
526 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet weather will brush our southern areas tonight.

- Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal through Tuesday
with precipitation also below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today will sunny, like yesterday, but not nearly as windy.  Like
yesterday, the dry air and strong sun will boost the temperatures
into the upper 70s to lower 80s, but with less strong winds over us
today, the wind gusts should be less than 30 mph today over Illinois
today, with around 20-25 over Iowa and MO. The humidity should drop
to around 30% this afternoon again, which is very dry, but with less
wind, we probably will not see any blowing dust/dirt today.

Tonight, a short wave will quickly moving through the Midwest, and
this will help increasing upper clouds by late afternoon today, and
will keep it mostly cloudy tonight. Several CAMS suggest that will
see a band of light rain, but with a deep dry air over Iowa, this
will likely be virga rather than wetting rains. However, the warm
front over eastern NE to central MO should produce some strong  to
severe storms tonight, with the short wave moving through.  The
north edge of this activity appear close enough to bring rain with
some embedded thunder possible through a far south counties.
Rainfall should be less than 0.5 where it occurs, and given how the
arid humidity+ winds dried our our soil yesterday, this should be no
problem.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The GFS continues to be a outlier handling the upper flow for Sunday
through Monday again tonight, as it cuts off an upper low, bringing
rain though Iowa mainly on Monday ahead, but this feature is not
included in other guidance, but is a more typical passing waves in
northwest flow through the week. Our forecast now has some slight
pops Monday, but otherwise does not lean into the aggressive cut off
low of the GFS. The NBM mean QPF remains under 0.10 for that period.

This northwest flow period is expected to last well into the week
ahead, with gradually building heat into the region as well. This
pattern could eventually favor some stong MCS activity, but that
will need to wait until both heat and moisture are in place, and for
now, we are not seeing much for low level moisture until Thursday
and Friday when dewpoint forecasts exceed 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR and quieter wind weather will persist through Friday
evening, with mostly clear skies. Some increase in high clouds
will occur Friday evening, but any rainfall appears light over
terminals and after 06z Saturday. Rain and some thunderstorms
will spread southeast from Nebraska late tonight, and that this
point, it looks to approach but remain just south of Burlington
through 12Z, and well south of other terminals. With dry air at
lower levels, VFR cigs and visibility are expected through the
period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin