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994
FXUS63 KEAX 260542
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely tonight - early tomorrow morning.
  Damaging winds continue to be the most likely hazard but a
  tornado or two is possible along with hail and heavy rainfall.

- Additional storms possible Sunday afternoon. Large hail and
  damaging winds.

- Quiet weather expected for Memorial Day through the middle of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Tonight: Latest surface analysis shows deeper, richer moisture
moving northward into southwestern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas as of 19Z. This is evident in the CU field building
northward with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. That rich
moisture will continue to build northward into central to
eastern Kansas this afternoon and evening and spread eastward
into west central Missouri with time as well. In the upper-
levels, a robust shortwave trough is moving into eastern
Colorado. As this shortwave tracks eastward this afternoon/
evening, storms should develop in central Kansas as cold
advection aloft helps to erode what looks like a strong cap, in
combination with the strong warm and moist transport in the
lower- levels. This will all occur within a strongly sheared
environment and as storms organize into one or more clusters
and track east into eastern KS and western MO, damaging winds
look to be the most likely hazard. However, 0-3km shear of 30-40
kts, oriented generally west to east along and ahead the area
of storms, will support the potential for a few tornadoes.
Additionally, the deeper, richer moisture advecting into the
area will result in precipitable water values climbing to near
1.5" and potentially exceeding 1.5". This will help lead to very
efficient rainfall with the storms that move through and we
could see a quick 1-2" of rain as a result. Since the area has
been relatively moist recently, flash flood guidance for 1 and 3
hour time frames are close to the forecast rain amounts. Also,
there is potential for a trailing area of heavy rain, oriented
roughly west-to-east behind the main convection. This looks
associated with some westward development of the low- level jet
behind the strongest portion of the LLJ that should be
associated with the stronger, potentially severe line of storms.
Storm motions with this activity would still be easterly but
with the westward extension of the LLJ pumping moisture into the
area, there is some potential for training storms in east
central Kansas to west central Missouri. Given all of this,
have issued a Flood Watch for the southern half to two-thirds of
the forecast area, generally along and south of the Missouri
River.


Sunday: While it is usually difficult to recover the airmass
from overnight to early morning convection, models do just that
and produce robust CAPE during the afternoon. With 2000-3000
J/kg of CAPE possible, and strong enough shear to lead to
organized updrafts, there is potential for strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Large hail and
damaging winds look to be the most likely hazards with these
storms.

Memorial Day and next week: Drier air will move into the area,
noted by the drop in dewpoints into the 50s. Temperatures will
be seasonal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overall,
it looks like great weather conditions for the holiday as the
drier air will inhibit any potential for showers and storms.
That trend will continue through the middle of week, as upper-
level riding builds into the middle of the CONUS. The next
chance for precipitation will come late Thursday, but especially
into Friday and the weekend as the ridge moves east and we move
into broad troughing aloft with moisture advection in the
lower- levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Initial lines of +TSRA are progressing through the terminals
over the next couple of hours. Gusty winds are possible even
outside of the near thunderstorm environment. Behind the
initial +TSRA, RA with VCTS continue through sunrise. CIGs lift
to around 3000ft for the afternoon. Additional showers and
storms are possible during the afternoon; however, that activity
is expected to remain east of the terminals.
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&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ020-021-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Pesel