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411
FXUS62 KFFC 250103
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
903 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 857 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The frontal boundary is currently slowly progressing through
central Georgia this evening. While the frontal passage didn`t
bring much relief in the way of cooler temperatures, it did at
least bringing a considerably drier airmass (reflected by
dewpoints in the 50s). Have made some minor adjustments to the
near term forecast, but otherwise the forecast remains on track.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The rainfall has finally moves south of our area into southern GA
and northern Florida. With this the drier air has begun to filter
into N GA only slightly behind schedule. The high pressure will
again dominate the forecast over the next two days and with the
large amount of dry air seen through the upper levels being the main
driving factor. Forecast PWATs are currently between 0.5 and 0.8" for
much of north and central Georgia which when compared to the
sounding climatology is at the 10th percentile or lower for this
time of year. We will definitely be encroaching on record low PWATs.
Temps will also of course continue to be unseasonable warm at ~8-10
degrees above normal for this time of year as highs reach into the
95-98 degree range today and tomorrow. With the dry air in place
though, dewpoints look to get as low as the mid 50s to low 60s which
is actually a positive when it comes to how hot it feels outside.
With those lower dewpoints our humidity will be lower and in turn
our heat indices will be closer to the actual temperatures with
tomorrow maxing out at 100 for portions of eastern central GA. Winds
may be gusty to 20 mph today but should be less tomorrow as winds
switch the NE overnight.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A Mid to upper level ridge combined with a weak surface high
centered to the north of Georgia will keep conditions dry to begin
the extended periods Wednesday morning. a longwave trough is
expected to extend into the Mississippi River Valley and move
eastward towards Georgia Wednesday Afternoon just as low level flow
gains a southerly component ahead of the trough. We should see some
moisture return across western GA wed Evening, spreading eastward
Wed night. Will still see high temperatures mainly in the upper 90s
to around 100 but some locations may just see some welcomed showers
and isolated thunderstorms late Wed into Thu. Precip chances will be
strongest (30% to 50% chance) Thu as the weakening frontal boundary
sweeps SE through the area. The front is anticipated to clear the
forecast area to the southeast by late Thursday night. Southerly low-
level flow will likely return to the area Friday into Saturday,
which will promote increasing dewpoints, hot temperatures, and
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend.

It will be important to keep an eye on temperatures through the
later parts of the week into the weekend. Even with trending high
temperatures down slightly to account for convective development,
highs are still forecast to range from between 4-8 degrees above
average for late June. Highs are mainly forecast to be in the 95 to
100 deg range Thursday through Sunday, and heat indices are forecast
to creep up into the 100 to 105 deg range in many locations,
particularly across Central GA.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. SKC during the overnight
hours, but SCT high clouds will move back in tomorrow afternoon.
NW winds at 6-10KT with periodic gusts up to 20KT will persist
for the next couple of hours. As winds diminish overnight, winds
will become NE by 04-05Z. Winds tomorrow will remain on the east
side at 5KT or less for most terminals. CSG will see mostly calm
conditions through much of the overnight and morning hours, but
will be out of the NW tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

KAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  97  71  99 /   0   0   0  20
Atlanta         72  97  74  99 /   0   0   0  20
Blairsville     60  90  66  91 /   0  10   0  30
Cartersville    64  96  70  99 /   0   0   0  30
Columbus        72 100  73 101 /   0   0   0  30
Gainesville     69  94  72  96 /   0   0   0  20
Macon           70 100  71 101 /   0  10   0  30
Rome            65  97  70  99 /   0   0   0  30
Peachtree City  68  98  71  99 /   0   0   0  20
Vidalia         74 101  74 101 /  20  30  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...KAB