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FXUS62 KFFC 170701
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Highlights:

-Warm slightly above normal temperatures continue today and Tuesday.

-Isolated storms possible in northeast Georgia this afternoon and
mostly dry on Tuesday.

Currently, some few to sct mid to high level clouds persist across
portions of the forecast area this morning. S/SE winds remain light
and temperature readings are in the 70s. So overall, a quiet night
and a relatively uneventful weather day can be expected. Midlevel
ridging remains in place over much of the Eastern CONUS with surface
high pressure just off the East Coast. Latest MSAS analysis still
indicates a wedge-like set up across the Appalachians.Aside from
some fair weather Cu and high clouds, the majority of the forecast
area looks to remain dry. Any convection has struggled to
materialize the past few days due to strong subsidence and drier air
(ridge) aloft; despite a slight uptick in low level moisture (S/SE
flow). Though still elected to maintain some slight to low chance
PoPs across far northeast GA this afternoon. Current thinking is any
appreciable rainfall will occur to the north of the area today.
Tuesday will be mostly dry though locales in far southeast GA could
see a stray shower during the late afternoon.

Temperatures today are forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s
except for the northeast GA mountains where temperatures are
forecast to be in the 80s. Again lower afternoon relative humidity
(40% range) will keep heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria
(heat indices greater or equal to 105) today and likely again on
Tuesday. Currently, heat indices are not forecast to rise above 100F
both days. While heat headlines are not currently in effect the
present conditions are enough to cause heat-related illness
particularly to vulnerable populations (i.e. the elderly, children,
pets, and those w/o air conditioning). Be proactive and check in on
friends, family and neighbors -- Beat the Heat!

07
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

 - The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday remains dry.

 - A pattern shift over the weekend may bring scattered
thunderstorms back to the region.

Wednesday and Thursday:

No significant changes have been made to the forecast during this
period. An upper level ridge should be centered over the Mid-
Atlantic on Wednesday and Thursday. The prevailing easterly flow on
the southern side of the ridge should usher low precipitable water
values into Georgia. Ensemble means from the GEFS and EPS continue
to favor values near 1 inch, which would be below the 25th
percentile for mid June. Surface dewpoints near 60 degrees and 700-
500 mb lapse rates between 4.5 and 5.5 C/km should also limit
instability during this period. When all these factors are taken
together, it loos like Wednesday and Thursday should see prevailing
dry weather.

Do to the upper level ridge hanging out to our north, we can
anticipated above average temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.
Afternoon high temperatures should fall into the 88 to 93 degree
range for most of Georgia (1 to 4 degrees above average). The lone
exception will be the higher elevations in far northeast Georgia
where highs in low to mid 80s are forecast.

Friday and Next Weekend:

The upper level ridge over the Mid-Atlantic should weaken during
this period as an upper level trough tracks through eastern Canada
and an easterly wave moves through the Bahamas. The Tropical Weather
Outlook from the National Hurricane Center continues to maintain a
30% chance for tropical cyclone formation with the easterly wave.
While this system could impact Georgia, and it should be monitored,
widespread significant impacts to the state are not expected at this
time. No matter what happens in the tropical world, we continue to
have high confidence that precipitable water values will rise
significantly between Friday and Saturday. Both the GEFS and EPS
means suggest values at or above 1.5 inches in Georgia by Saturday.
When combined with the decline in upper level ridging, the rise in
precipitable water values suggests a potential return to scattered
diurnal thunderstorms activity by the weekend.

Albright
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions continue at all sites. Still have some 060-080 cu
and high cirrus out there tonight along with light winds. Elected
to maintain the mention of FEW MVFR cigs at AHN/MCN ~12z.
Otherwise, 040-050 cu ~14z followed by 050-070 cigs by 18z will be
possible at all sites. -SHRA/-TSRA looks to be confined to far
northeast Georgia during the aftn and is not currently slated to
impact any of the terminals. Winds remain out of the SE 5 to
10kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Low confidence on occurrence of any low morning clouds.
High confidence on remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          91  70  89  67 /  20  10   0   0
Atlanta         93  72  90  70 /  10  10   0   0
Blairsville     86  66  83  64 /  30  10   0   0
Cartersville    93  72  90  70 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus        95  72  92  72 /  10  10  10   0
Gainesville     90  71  87  68 /  20  10   0   0
Macon           93  69  91  69 /  10   0  10   0
Rome            95  74  92  70 /  10  10   0   0
Peachtree City  93  70  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         93  71  91  70 /  10   0  10  10
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...07