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534
FXUS63 KFGF 260441
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1141 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect patchy frost along the Canadian border tonight as
  temperatures dip to around 35 degrees

- The active pattern continues with chances for showers and
  thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Thursday to
  Saturday

&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Showers in our southeastern counties have mostly fizzled.
Temperatures in our north have stayed in the 40s so far due to
higher dew points, but should still dip into the mid 30s later
tonight. No changes to what we had going.

UPDATE
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A few showers and even a thunderstorm along the ND/SD border
have started to show up on radar. Not much reaching the ground,
but enough to include an isolated shower/t-storm mention for the
next few hours. Put Benson county in the frost advisory to match
up with western neighbor.

UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Showers continue to remain well south of our west central MN
counties, so lowered POPs further as don`t think we will see
much tonight. Decreasing clouds for the rest of the CWA as
cumulus dissipates after sunset.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The stacked low over western Ontario will continue to lift
slowly northward tonight, eventually stalling along the Manitoba
and northwest Ontario border on Sunday. As another short wave
crosses the FA Sunday night into Monday, the 500mb low along the
Manitoba/northwest Ontario border will drop southeast behind
it, reaching the Minnesota arrowhead late Monday night. 500mb
ridging then builds in behind this, resulting in more normal
highs for Wednesday and beyond (normal highs are around 70 now).

The surface pressure pattern is very weak tonight, so expect
winds to become light quickly by dark. Any lingering daytime
clouds will thin out about the same time as well, setting up
another chilly night. Went ahead and issued a Frost Advisory
mainly for areas along the Canadian border, where the
temperature should dip to around 35 degrees. It is still early
in the season, but if people have sensitive plants, they should
cover them if possible to protect them from the cold.

The first wave will track through the FA mainly Sunday night
into Monday. Showers and some embedded thunder will track from
west to east across the FA during this period. With the absence
of much instability/thunder, precipitation amounts should
mainly be 0.10 to 0.20 inches, with some spots of 0.25 to 0.50
inches. There is more uncertainty with the second wave for
Thursday to Saturday. This does appear to be deeper/stronger,
but it also has the potential for wave interactions and
multiple waves. Also, with return of slightly more normal
temperatures (low 70s), there is the potential for a little more
organized thunderstorm activity. At this point, the
probabilities for more than 0.50 inches of rain are still fairly
low (20-30 percent). As this period gets closer, will get a
better idea on how it may unfold.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions with a few mid and high clouds. Some low
probabilities of patchy light ground fog or mist developing,
but not high enough chances to put into the TAFs. Winds will be
light and variable, eventually picking up out of the southwest
at KDVL by the end of the period.
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&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ND...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     054.
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ004>009.
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&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...JR