-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
836
FXUS63 KGRR 070522
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers tonight, cooler Friday

- Showers Possible Saturday and Cooler through the Weekend

- Warming Trend Second Half of Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

- Isolated showers tonight, cooler Friday

Water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over the Great Lakes
and the colder air aloft is producing stratocu thats moving across
Wisconsin into Lower MI. We`ll likely see the northern cwa become
mostly cloudy for a time tonight. Radar shows scattered showers
accompanying that stratocu and they are advecting into Lower MI
too.

Forecast concerns are fairly minimal in the short term and deal
with cloud trends and pcpn chances.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with isolated
showers north of I-96. Low temperatures will fall into the upper
40s near US-10 and settle in the lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

We`ll see more clouds than sun Friday as the core of the cold air
move across the region. Highs will only be in the mid to upper
60s. The upper trough will begin to move out Friday night and be
replaced by weak upper ridging and warmer temperatures aloft. The
result should be clearing skies Friday night and lows in the 45-50
degree range.

- Showers Possible Saturday and Cooler through the Weekend

Upper troughing remains in place through the weekend leading to cool
conditions. 850mb temps stay in the single digits through early next
week leading to daytime high temperatures peaking a few degrees below
normal in the low to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows
in the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain chances (low chance for thunder)
increase Saturday morning and afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
moves through the region. Rain clears out Sunday and dry weather
sticks around through mid-week.

- Warming Trend Second Half of Next Week

A quick mid-week shortwave leads to low rain chances before the
upper troughing exits east and surface ridging builds the latter
half of the week. 850mb temps steadily climb with the deterministic
Euro and GFS peaking just shy of 20C which reflects temps well into
the 80s and even into the 90s looking possible. Ensemble meteograms
support these temperature rises into late next week with highs at
least in the mid to upper 80s looking likely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 119 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The main impact to aviators will be the winds today. West to
northwest gusts will occasionally top 25 knot, primarily during
the daylight hours. A few showers will track through the sites,
mainly north of a KAZO to KJXN line. Any cloud cover is expected
to remain at VFR levels. The mixing heights will decrease during
the evening hours and that is when the winds will diminish.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

No changes to the Small Craft Advisory nor Beach Hazards
Statement. As colder air flows over the lake, wind and waves will
be hazardous to boaters and beachgoers through Friday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LMZ844>849.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04/Thielke
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...04/Thomas