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313
FXUS62 KGSP 080551
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure over the area Saturday gives way to a a cold front
and returning shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Forecast
confidence lowers starting next week as the overall pattern is
uncertain by the end of the seven day period, but trends are for a
dry start to the work week then increasing rain chances through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Key Messages:

1) Dry and Stable Conditions Expected Through the Period

As of 135 am EDT Saturday: Dry high pressure will continue building
in from the west into tonight leading to dry weather, low humidity,
and mostly clear skies. Low temperatures this morning will be cooler
compared to last night...about a category below normal, thanks to
great radiational cooling conditions. The sfc high will gradually
weaken later today as upper short wave troughs approach the region
late today into the evening. The main impact will mainly be to allow
for a slight increase in upper cloud cover. Max temps will be a few
degrees warmer across the mountains but similar to yesterday`s highs
east of the mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday: Short waves carve out a trough from the
northwest flow over the area this period. At the surface a cold
front crosses the area Sunday night with high pressure attempting to
build in from the NW on Monday. The guidance still shows agreement
on showers and scattered thunderstorms for the mountains on Sunday,
with scattered showers and isolated storms elsewhere. Isolated
showers linger Sunday night. Although the latest guidance runs are
trending toward a potentially dry Monday, they have been flip
flopping back and forth between Chance PoP and dry. Have kept low
chance PoP in for Monday in line with the guidance blend, but this
could change should the drier trend continue. Lows will be near to
slightly above normal both nights. Highs will be around 90 along and
south of the I-85 corridor and above normal elsewhere. Highs Monday
drop back to around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Friday: The Monday trough moves east Tuesday as a
short wave ridge builds in. The ridge moves east on Wednesday as a
southern stream low pressure moves into the Gulf Coast and stalls
there while a northern stream short wave traverses the Great Lakes
by Friday. Dry high pressure builds in Tuesday then moves east
Wednesday as a moist southerly flow develops. This flow remains over
the area through Friday as a surface low develops along the Gulf
Coast and stalls while a cold front moves toward the area from the
NW by Friday. This will set up the potential for a protracted period
of at least scattered diurnal convection with the potential for non-
diurnal convection as well. Of course, there is some uncertainty
with the strength and location of these features. Therefore, have
trended toward the guidance blend which keeps scattered mainly
diurnal convection each day. Temps below normal on Tuesday slowly
rise to above normal by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Anomalously dry air will support VFR
conditions and essentially 0 chance for precip through the period.
In fact, skies will be mostly SKC until later today, when high and
mid-level clouds are expected to increase a bit in advance of an
approaching upper air disturbance. Winds will be light northerly (or
calm in sheltered areas) early this morning, but are expected to
turn steadily toward the SW from sunrise through early afternoon.

Outlook: A cold front brings shower and thunderstorm chances and
possible restrictions back to the area on Sunday. It`s looking
increasingly likely that dry/inactive weather will return for at
least the first half of the new work week.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR/CP/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL