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738
FXUS61 KGYX 281025
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
625 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass overhead today, crossing the coastal
waters tonight. An upper level trough slowly crosses the region
Wednesday through Friday with more scattered showers and near
seasonable temperatures. High pressure passes south of the area
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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620am Update...Cloud heights dipped lower over the course of the
early morning hours, resulting in dense fog. This is most
prevalent along the ME coast and NH seacoast at this hour.
Issued a Dense Fog Adv through 9am as these likely will linger
through morning rush hour after the holiday weekend. HREF
probabilities keep low vis over the coastal waters through much
of the mid and late morning hours. Thus while fog should lift
readily this morning across the interior, areas along the
immediate coast may still deal with patchy fog through mid
afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
Warmer today as low pressure passing north of the St. Lawrence
River pulls a cold front through the region today. It`s along
this that the chance for reinvigorated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm develop late this morning and afternoon. Lots of
dry air will have moved into the mid and upper levels, so
development of these showers will really depend on the lifting
function of the front.

Instability will need to build on the heels of receding clouds
this morning, and hires guidance does depict and axis of CAPE
tracking through the mountains and most of interior western
Maine. HREF soundings have an appreciable amount of DCAPE, and
showers or storms with higher echo tops should prove to have
some gusty winds with them. However, lack of coverage and
moisture downplays confidence in mentioning this as a
significant hazard.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Center of the trough will move overhead this evening and
overnight, resulting in showers approaching from the west. Low
confidence in these making an impact overnight. Another mild
night will be on tap for coastal and interior locations.

Wednesday will bring the chance of additional shower development
and perhaps a rumble of thunder as upper trough slowly
approaches the area, with broad low pressure centered near James
Bay. Temperatures run a few degrees cooler than Tuesday as low
levels finally switch NW with cooler conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: A mid-level trough and cutoff low pressure system
will remain near Northern New England through Friday, which will
result in continued chances for scattered showers at times
along with near average temperatures. Drier conditions are then
likely by next weekend.

Impacts: Little to no major weather related impacts are expected.

Forecast Details: Scattered showers will remain possible
through Wednesday night with cool overnight temperatures into
the lower to middle 40s. The cold front will move over the Gulf
of Maine on Thursday but a weak sfc low may develop along it.
This will result in scattered showers through much of the day,
especially south of the mountains. High temperatures will remain
cool with lower 60s across the north and upper 60s to near 70
degrees south.

Showers will likely become more isolated in nature by Thursday night
as the front and weak wave of low pressure slides north and east of
the area. Low temperatures will be mostly into the 40s. High
pressure will build to our west on Friday but latest guidance
indicates an inverted trough may develop, which would result in cool
and showery conditions once again. This portion of the forecast is
of lower confidence though as heights will be rising through the
day. Therefore, capped PoPs to slight chance at this time. High
temperatures will be into the 60s to lower 70s. Drier and
slightly warmer conditions are then likely next weekend as an h5
ridge axis moves overhead and sfc high pressure slides
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR conditions early this morning will
improve to MVFR/VFR towards the afternoon. There still may be a
bank of low stratus or fog that sits just off the ME coast
through the evening, but otherwise restrictions improve during
the day. SHRA develop this afternoon across the interior, but
should be isolated. TS will be most likely north or around AUG
for a short window this afternoon. MVFR ceilings return to
northwestern NH this evening. SHRA possible Wednesday, with
mostly VFR ceilings.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of any
scattered -SHRA and potential nighttime FG. Winds will be
primarily out of the west at or below 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...The waters transition from a wind/wave SCA
conditions to just waves after mid morning. Waves up to 5ft will
continue to be possible this afternoon. A cold front overhead
will slowly begin to push east tonight with broad low pressure
remaining to the NW through midweek.


Long Term...Seas up to around 5 ft are possible across the outer
waters Wednesday night through part of Thursday but otherwise
westerly winds and seas will likely remain below thresholds
hazardous to small crafts.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ018>028.
NH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ150>152-154.
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&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Tubbs