-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
601
FXUS64 KHGX 241734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather exists across NW/W
counties today. A dryline will move into Central Texas during the
day today, and with embedded disturbances in the mid-upper level
flow, storms that form in Central TX could make their way into the
aforementioned area later this afternoon into tonight. Best chances
for storms remain on the lower end (~20%), and will largely depend
on if the storms can maintain longevity and overcome the cap. With
CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, shear values around 50 kts, storms that
make it into the area and overcome the cap would be capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail.

Aside from the storm potential, the main headline for today
continues to be the heat risk across SE Texas. Highs for today will
be in the 90s inland and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Persistent onshore flow will continue to funnel moisture into the
area. The combination of heat and humidity will result in heat index
values of 100-107F across much of SE Texas. Please exercise heat
safety by staying hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the
hottest part of the day, and look before you lock! Remember that if
the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, it is too hot for
your pets` paws.

Lows for tonight will be in the 70s area wide with muggy conditions.

Saturday will feature another day of hot and humid conditions with
highs in the low to mid 90s inland and dew point values in the mid
to upper 70s. Heat index values for Saturday will once be in the
triple digits area wide (100-108F).

In addition to the heat risk, coastal hazards will also exist today
and into the weekend, including a high risk for rip currents,
above normal water levels, and above normal surf. If at the
beach, swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties and
piers. In addition, don`t swim at the eastern or western tips of
Galveston Island. Tidal currents and rip currents are always
dangerous there. If caught in a rip current, do not panic and swim
parallel to the shore.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Slightly higher heights and warmer H85 temps will bring the
hottest temps we should see in the 7 day period Sunday and
Monday. Looking for highs in the mid 90s with overnight lows only
in the 77-82F range for most locations. Despite southerly winds
in the 10-20mph range, moist ground and elevated dewpoints will
keep things plenty uncomfortable this holiday weekend. Heat index
values will probably top out in the 105-110F range. Chances of
shra/tstms are quite slim, but not zero for parts of the Brazos
Valley & Piney Woods both days (with Monday late afternoon/evening
possibly being the slightly better shot of the two).

Weak frontal boundary slides southward and somewhat close to the
region Monday night & Tues, but high pressure behind this boundary
generally becomes positioned just to our east. What does this
mean? We`ll probably see some recycled "drier" air backdoor into
parts of the region and temps trending back a little closer to
seasonable norms. But with decent moisture still available west of
the surface ridging, we`d anticipate some isolated to scattered
tsra to return to the forecast each day for the remainder of the
work week. Most should be diurnally driven, but we`ll also need to
keep tabs in the nwly flow aloft for embedded disturbances that
could provide a more organized trigger from time-to-time. Included
somewhat low precip chances in the grids, but above NBM suggestions.
Suspect POPs will need to be raised at times for some locations
as time advances and we can better identify these things and
trends become better established. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Though conditions have been broadly MVFR, anticipating that trends
will bring us to widespread VFR conditions by or very shortly
after 18Z. Gusty winds out of the south/southeast, with gusts
dropping off in the evening. Winds gradually should come down as
well, though MVFR CIGs should be expected to return as well. Like
today` tomorrow`s return to VFR likely to be around 18Z, but have
only explicitly included it in the extended portion of the TAF at
IAH, and will leave more precise timing to the next cycle.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Moderate onshore flow will prevail through the Memorial Day
weekend and well into next week. Seas will remain somewhat
elevated...generally ranging between 4-6ft. Will maintain caution
flags for all the waters today...and suspect it`ll need to be
extended for intermittent periods through Monday.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  75  95  76 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  77  94  77 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  79  86  79 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47