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563
FXUS66 KHNX 252048
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
148 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

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.KEY MESSAGES...

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1. Above average temperatures will continue this week, with 100
degree heat persistent for many locations through Wednesday.

2. There is a 10 to 30 percent probability for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon along the Sierra Nevada crest from Yosemite
National Park to the border of Tulare and Kern Counties.

3. Winds pick up on Wednesday evening through Friday morning
with a 80 to near 100 percent chance of wind gusts of 45 mph or
higher at the Mojave Desert Slopes. A wind advisory is in effect
from Wednesday evening through Friday morning.
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.DISCUSSION...

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The ridge axis remains centered over western New Mexico this
afternoon. The moisture from the former Tropical system Alberto
continues to linger over the region and should exit on Wednesday
as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest pushing the
ridge down a little. The general pattern aloft will continue
from west to northwest keeping the temperatures down to near
normal for the latter part of the week into the weekend. A ridge
over the eastern Pacific and the ridge over the southeastern US
will begin to resurges starting Monday. This will bring the
heat back to Central California as we head into the upcoming
holiday week.

This afternoon will be another above 100 degree day, a slight
bit cooler than yesterday, for the San Joaquin Valley. The
probability of exceeding (PoE) 100 degrees ranges from 61
percent for Merced to 96 percent at Bakersfield for this
afternoon. The moisture aloft will keep a few mid to high
clouds around the valley. The risk for valley thunderstorms is
very low with convective temperatures around 117 degrees and
convective inhibition values greatly exceed convective
available potential energy. The foothills and Sierra are the
threat zones for dry thunderstorms again this afternoon and
evening. Any thunderstorms that fire up over the foothills and
or Sierra will move off to the east towards Nevada. The
probability of thunderstorms in the foothills 10 to 20 percent,
and above 5000 feet increases to 20 to 35 percent with the
higher probability along the crests.

Wednesday shifts the impact focus from temperatures and
thunderstorms over to wind for the region. The probability of
thunder is confined to the highest crests of the Sierra and is
less than 10 percent. The PoE of 100 degrees in the San Joaquin
Valley for Merced and Madera is less than 16 percent. The
remainder of the valley is 45 to 60 percent. The focus on
impacts is the Mojave Slopes as Wednesday evening the
probability of exceeding 45 mph increases on the short range
ensembles to 80 to near 100 percent. Raised the wind advisory
flag for Wednesday evening for the Slopes.

Thursday the main impact will continue to be Mojave Slope winds
as during the day expect a little lull sub advisory levels and
then Thursday evening a 50 to 70 percent probability of
exceeding 45 mph. The PoE of 100 degrees falls below 11 percent
for the San Joaquin Valley. The risk of thunderstorms for the
high Sierra falls to near zero.

Friday through Sunday the Mojave Slope wind takes a break. The
PoE of 100 degrees continues sub 30 percent for the weekend
ahead. The threat of thunder continues near zero for the region.

Monday into next week the PoE of 100 degrees increases daily on
Monday 30 to 40 percent, Tuesday 60 to 80 percent, and peering
into next Wednesday and Thursday above 80 percent. A hot fourth
of July week is anticipated for the region.
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.AVIATION...

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VFR. The impacts will be ISOL TS over the foothills and Sierra
Crests. The threat lasts through 03Z WED. Otherwise, only VFR
clouds are expected through the period.
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.FIRE WEATHER...

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The cured fine fuels continue to pose a threat for ignition for
the foreseeable future. This afternoon and evening poses a
threat for dry thunderstorms again in the Sierra. The risk in
the Valley is near zero this afternoon and evening. The
temperatures will slowly cut back to near normal by the weekend.
The main wind threat will be on the Mojave Slopes. Otherwise,
the valley, foothills, and Sierra remain mainly diurnal terrain
driven winds.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
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ISSUED:  06/24/2024 14:33
EXPIRES: 06/25/2024 23:59
None.
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.CERTAINTY...

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The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Wind Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ338.
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&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
IDSS....EW

weather.gov/hanford