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186
FXUS66 KHNX 191932
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1232 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

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1. Temperatures near average through Thursday then warming to
10 to 15 degrees above average this weekend with widespread
triple digit maximum temperatures across the lower elevations.

2. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for the San Joaquin
Valley, West Side Hills, Sierra Nevada Foothills, and Kern River
Valley from Sunday morning through late Monday night. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for Saturday and Saturday night.

3. There is about a 50 to 85% probability of 105 degrees across
the San Joaquin Valley on Saturday and about a 40 to 70%
probability of 105 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley on
Sunday.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Satellite loops show a few high clouds moving inland over
Central CA with the upper-level trough continuing over the
Western U.S. Temperatures will continue near seasonal averages
today and warm slightly on Thursday. Above average temperatures
return by Friday as the ridge of high pressure builds from the
Desert SW, and the trough retreats to the Pacific NW and
offshore. Some upper-level impulses on Friday may mitigate
warming a bit, based on latest high resolution guidance.

For this weekend the ridge continues to strengthen, so
widespread triple digit heat returns. We have issued a Heat
Advisory for the SJ Valley, west side hills, the lower Sierra
foothills, and the Kern River Valley for Saturday until early Sunday
morning due to hot maximum temperatures and little to no overnight
relief. Probabilities remain moderate to high (40-85 percent)
for very hot temperatures, or 105 degrees and hotter on both
Saturday and Sunday, although with lower chances on Sunday (with
the best chances closer to 70 percent in the SJ Valley). For
now, we`ll keep the Excessive Heat Watch going for Sunday and
Monday, as there remains some uncertainty regarding how much
heating occurs. In any case, temperatures will remain hot in
much of the lower elevations below 2,500 feet, as well as the
Kern County desert, until at least early next week.

While confidence is low at this time, there is now a
possibility of tropical moisture reaching the desert, though
more likely to reach into portions of SE CA closer to the
Colorado River by Sunday. This potential feature will bear
watching as we get closer, as it could impact southern portions
of our forecast area, such as increased cloud cover and perhaps
a slight moderation in temperatures. Based on latest guidance,
precipitation chances appear mainly limited to far SE CA and the
Desert Southwest, or areas to the east and southeast of Kern
County, for now. Otherwise, the upper-level ridge of high
pressure will remain intact over our forecast area and provide
continued dry weather with above average temperatures through
the middle of next week. Triple digit heat prevails in the
desert and lower elevations from this weekend until at least the
first part of next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 6 AM PDT Sunday for
CAZ300>317-319-321-332.
Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday
night for CAZ300>317-319-321-332.
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&&

$$

BSO/DAS

weather.gov/hanford