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298
FXUS63 KICT 241950
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
250 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Mild and quiet this afternoon

- Thunderstorms (some likely severe) late afternoon Saturday and
into overnight

- Quiet weather start to next week
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Much drier air is moving into the CWA this afternoon bringing
surface and boundary layer Tds down in the 40s. This will make for
dry but windy afternoon with a pleasant evening once the winds die
off.  During the night, the dry air will remain entrenched and will
allow overnight lows to dip into the mid to low 50s across the
region with a few areas possibly getting into the upper 40s.  While
cold for this time of year, record lows are not expected.

Saturday the forecast becomes tricky.  The next weather system will
be encroaching on the CWA from the west and the winds will be
turning to the south during the early morning.  This next system is
rather strong in the mid and upper levels and will create a
potential severe weather event for the CWA.  There still remains a
great deal of uncertainty as to the location and amount of areal
coverage of any resultant thunderstorm activity.   This is due to
the orientation of the high pressure system to the northeast of the
CWA. Most ensembles agree this high pressure system will be in the
Southern Great Lakes region or Northern Ohio Valley.  This placement
indicates a ridge of high pressure is likely to be over much of
Central and Northern Kansas Saturday morning.  This will make it
difficult for moisture advection to take over and likely create a
moderately strong mid-level cap. Most ensemble families indicate
boundary layer Tds will start in the 40s and low 50s across the
region with Southeast Kansas likely to see the mid 50s around 12Z.
The GFS/NAM families are in the lower of the 50s and even upper 40s
for Tds across the CWA Saturday morning. All the ensembles indicate
that moisture advection will begin the mid to late morning and
continue through the day.  This is where the ensemble families
diverge.  The RAP and ECMWF families have a much more rapid increase
in moisture through the day while the NAM/GFS families are much
slower.  This appears to be due to the projected speed of the 700mb
low which is much quicker on the RAP/ECMWF families.  This solution
allows the boundary layer Tds of 65-70+F to arrive by mid to late
Saturday afternoon.  The GFS/NAM families are much slower bringing
the 65-70+F boundary layer Tds into South Central Kansas closer to
the evening hours Saturday. This difference will play a critical
role in the timing and location of the severe weather for Saturday.
The models trends are currently favoring the NAM/GFS solution
indicating the better chances for thunderstorm activity will be
around or after 00Z Saturday evening.

Regardless of timing, shear profiles and lapse rates are supportive
of severe thunderstorm activity throughout Saturday afternoon
and into the overnight period. The lack of quality moisture
creates a conditional thunderstorm threat for Saturday
afternoon. If a storm is able to get going, it will grow upscale
into the severe category rather quick with all threats possible
(very large damaging hail and/or a few strong tornadoes). At
this time, it appears the needed moisture to get thunderstorms
going will not arrive until the very late afternoon and evening
Saturday. By Saturday evening, the boundary layer moisture will
likely be in place and the dry line will be moving through the
CWA. This is the time confidence in thunderstorm developing is
the greatest. The shear profiles by Saturday evening begin to
favor a more squall line set up rather than discrete super
cells. While discrete super cells are expected upon initiation,
these super cells are expected to quickly cluster and form a
more squall line mode with in a few hours of initiation. This
will make all threats possible to start (large damaging hail and
a few strong tornadoes) then after the squall line develops, a
more wind threat (65-75 mph) likely during the late evening and
overnight period. This thunderstorm activity is currently
expected to exit the CWA by Sunday morning.

Sunday and into next week will start off quiet and dry with
northwest winds expected for Sunday afternoon and into the Monday.
By Tuesday, the winds will shift more southerly and will increase
the moisture once again.  This will also increase the chances for
showers and thunderstorms but this activity does not look nearly as
organized as the activity expected for this Saturday.  Temperatures
are expected to remain near normal for this time of year as the
incoming cooler air behind the Saturday`s front is not Pacific in
origin.  This will keep temperatures close to normal for much of
next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminal sites for the
period. Northwesterly winds will weaken through the daytime hours
before veering around to the southeast and strengthening once more
early Saturday morning. These are anticipated to gust to 20-25 kts
through the end of the period for all sites except KCNU.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...JK