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807
FXUS62 KILM 010754
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
354 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move off the coast this evening as quiet and
slightly cooler weather continues through the weekend.
Temperatures and humidity are on the rise next week, with daily
shower and thunderstorm chances gradually returning. A cold
front may move through the area by late in the work week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High-pressure ridging from Western New York to South Carolina
will shift off the coast by 12 UTC Sunday. Very little moisture
is available, and sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday
night.

Temperatures will remain just below average for one more day,
with highs ranging from the lower 80s at the coast to 82-84
inland. Lows Sunday night will range from the middle 50s in
interior sections of Southeast North Carolina to the lower to
middle 60s along the coast and interior Northeast South
Carolina.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Mostly quiet weather in the short term period. Clouds are on
the rise, with high pressure shifting further offshore, and
setting up some healthy return flow. Even so, subsidence should
keep most everybody dry on Sunday. Folks west of I-95 carry just
a stray chance for a shower or thunderstorm where subsidence is
a bit weaker, but this shouldn`t pose much of a problem. The
cooler airmass sticks around, with highs only in the lower 80s.
Lows Sunday night in the mid 60s.

Monday, more moisture continues to enter the column, with
precipitable water values shooting up to 1.50+ inches. Most of
the subsidence erodes away, and a classic summertime pattern is
starting to take shape (happy Meteorological Summer, by the
way). Maintaining relatively low chances for afternoon showers
and storms, particularly inland with the Piedmont trough. High
temperatures rebound a bit the mid 80s, while lows Monday night
should be a degree or two warmer than the previous night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Tuesday looks rather similar to Monday, albeit a touch warmer.
Things start to get a little more interesting by Wednesday. A
broad upper low over Manitoba and Ontario spins and gradually
drops southeastward through the Great Lakes region Wednesday
through Friday. Ahead of this beast, multiple shortwaves push
through the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, which, combined
with daytime heating, brings more robust shower and thunderstorm
chances. Afternoon convection from the seabreeze and Piedmont
trough should look a bit more organized at this point. A large
swath of forcing from the big upper low finally surges southward
Thursday night through Friday, which pushes a cold front
through the area. This may bring an even more organized line of
convection through the area at this time. Instability really
perks up Thursday ahead of the front, so this might be one to
watch. Details will get better in the coming days.

Highs generally in the upper 80s to near 90 each day. Lows
range in the mid-to-upper 60s inland to lower 70s at the coast.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High confidence VFR forecast. This TAF is a wind forecast with
light northeast through sunrise. Southeast winds are expected
between 14 and 16 UTC as the center high pressure over northeast
North Carolina will slowly to the east. The sea/land temperature
difference will be enough to enhance winds speed at the coastal
TAF sites by a few knots over the synoptic flow. Winds are
expected to become less than 4 knots after 01 UTC.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight...High pressure will shift off the Carolina
coast by sunrise Monday. The wind direction will veer from the
east on Sunday and to the south on Sunday night. Wind speeds
will range between 5 to 10 knots. Seas will remain around 2 feet
through the period.

Sunday through Wednesday...Winds generally out of the south or
southwest most of the period at 10kts. Winds become more
southeasterly Wednesday, decreasing slightly to 5-10kts. Seas
remain virtually locked in at 1-2ft, with a few 3ft waves
possible 20nm from shore.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...RH/IGB