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636
FXUS62 KILM 202348
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
748 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Forecast dries out completely just in time for the weekend,
with high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just
above seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable
rain chances look to return by the middle of next week with the
next frontal system.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak high pressure basically east of the Appalachians remains
in control this afternoon although the overall column continues
to show some decent moisture. This led to good coverage of fog
and stratus this morning and should do so once again Saturday. A
few showers have/are developing just to the north of the area
and added some minimal pops for a handful of hours this
afternoon to address. Moisture decreases further Saturday and
hopefully the weakly forced showers won`t develop. Tonight`s
lows will be in the middle 60s with highs Saturday similar to
today`s values in the middle 80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No major forecast changes but have slightly increased rain chances
late Sunday into Sunday night over SE NC. We`ll be sitting in
largely northerly flow coming down and around the mountains when a
shortwave looks to push through late Sunday. The issue will be the
dry mid-levels, so have increased chances but still kept areas over
land dry. Could see this changing with future updates, but not
expecting large rainfall totals regardless. Otherwise, should see
some warming ahead of this disturbance with highs Sunday getting
into the mid to upper 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to
mid 60s with slight warming and increasing cloud cover leading to
lows in the mid to upper 60s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions should remain quiet under ridging high pressure until the
middle of next week where moisture starts to increase due to a
frontal system to our west. Regardless of when the front from this
system reaches the area, expecting increasing rain chances and
warming temperatures ahead of it.

Guidance remains messy with the area of development in the Caribbean
and even moreso with the disturbance behind it. To put something out
there, ensembles seem to be agreeing that there will be some area of
low pressure of questionable strength nearing or around the Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the long term period, but this could change
with subsequent updates to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Dry wx for the duration of the 00Z TAF period as sfc high
pressure builds into the area. Fog or low stratus remains likely
inland tonight, similar to last night, as conditions are quite
similar in terms of light wind and small dewpoint depressions.
Exception is the lack of rainfall today, so went a little less
aggressive tonight with the IFR/MVFR conditions keeping them at
only LBT/FLO, but will re-evaluate in future updates. Conditions
improve to VFR everywhere into the day Saturday with light ENE
wind.

Extended Outlook...Dry through at least Tuesday with VFR
conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at
times.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Persistent conditions across the coastal
waters tonight and Saturday. Winds will be from the north in a
range of 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet for the
most part but may see a slight increase later Saturday with 2-4
feet.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Winds will generally be E/NE
becoming more onshore in the afternoons with the sea breeze, speeds
in the 10-15 kt range. Waveheights generally 2-3 ft with some 4
footers possible ~20 nm out from the SE NC coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend with high
astronomical tides and a modest northeast flow. The beaches
seem secure for advisory criteria while downtown Wilmington may
reach warning criteria another cycle or two.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107-109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...SHK/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...