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630
FXUS62 KILM 170043
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
843 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain a threat into
tonight, especially across Southeast as the low continues
inland, with improving conditions into early Tuesday due to
drier air building in. Warm conditions with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid week. A weak
cold front will bring more seasonable temperatures beginning
towards the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
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508 PM EDT UPDATE...
All Tropical Warning headlines have been discontinued across the
land and marine areas of the ILM CWA. Sfc low straddling the
Northeast SC Coast, will move onshore and weaken as it tracks
further NW and inland. Flash Flood Watch discontinued for the
remainder of the ILM SC CWA, remains in effect for all of the
ILM NC CWA. Heaviest rainfall will pivot northward and further
inland, away from the ILM CWA with time during this evening and
overnight. SCA is now in effect for all ILM Coastal Waters.
Rivers across the district will respond to the recent heavy
rainfall, with a River Flood Warning having just been posted for
the Lumber River, Lumberton area.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure will move inland tonight and showers and a few
storms will gradually diminish from east to west overnight. The
heavy rain threat continues in the flood watch area except for
Georgetown County which will be removed from the watch. Tuesday
will see improving conditions with a small chance for a few
showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will fall to the mid 60s
to around 70. Highs Tuesday will reach the upper 70s to lower
80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Over the short term period the remnant low of PTC 8 will
dissipate to our NW. The remaining trough axis will pass back
overhead Wed with enough lingering moisture to keep rain/thunder
chances in the forecast through the end of the period. Lows in
the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The trough axis will remain in the area with periodic shortwaves
moving through aloft. This unsettled pattern will lead to the
possibility of showers/thunderstorms through the end of the work
week. A front may move through later in the period bringing
relatively drier air, but confidence is low on timing.
Temperatures will cool to near seasonable towards the end of
the period due to the passing front.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist this evening and likely become
dominant IFR ceilings across the inland terminals overnight into
daylight Tue. Pcpn will become more isolated in nature later
this evening and overnight across the area terminals. The
gustiness in the winds will quickly abate this evening as the
weakening low having moved onshore late this aftn, now has
become elongated across SC as it continues pressing further
inland. Inland terminals may see rounds or predawn fog but kept
it MVFR related. Look for slowly improving ceilings Tue, likely
reaching VFR by or just after 16Z, may take longer across the
inland terminals. Winds after daybreak, basically S-SW around 8
to 12 kt.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR possible each morning through
Friday due to low stratus and/or ground fog.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tuesday... Expect rapidly improving conditions tonight
into Tuesday as tropical storm conditions abate after the low
moves inland. By Tuesday, expect S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT
and seas continuing to subside to 3 to 4 FT by afternoon.

Tuesday Night through Saturday... Southerly flow around 10 kts
is expected through a majority of the work week until a front
moves through, winds becoming light and northerly. Significant
seas around 3-4 feet with the dominant swell being 2-3 feet out
of the east at 9- 10 seconds.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Elevated astronomical tides, the strong onshore winds from
recent low pressure and E-ESE swells will all combine to
elevated water levels along the coasts of SE NC and NE SC...
leading to minor coastal flooding at times of high tide this
evening.

Other - Rip Currents:
E to ESE swells, although slowly eroding, will remain conducive
to cause a high risk of rip currents for all beaches through
Tuesday. Diminishing winds will become south to southwest by and
during Tuesday helping to subside the strong longshore currents
of the past few days.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...LEW/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH