226
FXUS62 KILM 162108
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
508 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain a threat into
tonight, especially across Southeast as the low continues
inland, with improving conditions into early Tuesday due to
drier air building in. Warm conditions with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid week. A weak
cold front will bring more seasonable temperatures beginning
towards the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
All Tropical Warning headlines have been discontinued across the
land and marine areas of the ILM CWA. Sfc low straddling the
Northeast SC Coast, will move onshore and weaken as it tracks
further NW and inland. Flash Flood Watch discontinued for the
remainder of the ILM SC CWA, remains in effect for all of the
ILM NC CWA. Heaviest rainfall will pivot northward and further
inland, away from the ILM CWA with time during this evening and
overnight. SCA is now in effect for all ILM Coastal Waters.
Rivers across the district will respond to the recent heavy
rainfall, with a River Flood Warning having just been posted for
the Lumber River, Lumberton area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will move inland tonight and showers and a few storms
will gradually diminish from east to west overnight.  The heavy rain
threat continues in the flood watch area except for Georgetown
County which will be removed from the watch.  Tuesday will see
improving conditions with a small chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms.  Lows tonight will fall to the mid 60s to around 70.
Highs Tuesday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Over the short term period the remnant low of PTC 8 will dissipate
to our NW. The remaining trough axis will pass back overhead Wed
with enough lingering moisture to keep rain/thunder chances in the
forecast through the end of the period. Lows in the mid to upper 60s
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trough axis will remain in the area with periodic shortwaves
moving through aloft. This unsettled pattern will lead to the
possibility of showers/thunderstorms through the end of the work
week. A front may move through later in the period bringing
relatively drier air, but confidence is low on timing. Temperatures
will cool to near seasonable towards the end of the period due
to the passing front.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mix of MVFR and IFR across the region this afternoon will persist
into the evening as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 lingers in the
region. Gusty winds will gradually abate, particularly during the
late afternoon into the evenings but CIGS may not improve until
after daybreak Tuesday.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR possible early each morning through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday... Expect rapidly improving conditions tonight
into Tuesday as tropical storm conditions abate after the low
moves inland. By Tuesday, expect S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT
and seas continuing to subside to 3 to 4 FT by afternoon.

Tuesday Night through Saturday... Southerly flow around 10 kts is
expected through a majority of the work week until a front moves
through, winds becoming light and northerly. Significant seas around
3-4 feet with the dominant swell being 2-3 feet out of the east at 9-
10 seconds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated astronomical tides, strong northeast winds and large
swells in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
will cause elevated water levels along the coasts of SE NC and
NE SC leading to minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding at
times early this week.

Other - Rip Currents:
Easterly swells will cause a high risk of rip currents for all
beaches today. Persistent northeasterly winds will produce
moderate to strong longshore currents.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...31
MARINE...III/LEW/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM