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085
FXUS62 KILM 180016
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
816 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week
as high pressure sits well offshore. A system moving out of the
Bahamas could bring rain chances Friday before heat builds over
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The center of a mid/upper ridge over NC this afternoon will
transition northward to the Mid-Atlantic region through Tuesday. At
the surface, flow will remain generally onshore as a result of high
pressure off the NE CONUS. This will keep temps pretty close to
climatology for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Pretty quiet and seasonable through the period. The large mid level
ridge will be located to our north while its surface reflection will
be further east. This leads to deep layer onshore flow and a deep
blue sky as none of the inland particulates present in mid level
westerly flow will be a factor. At the base of the subsidence
inversion there may be a stray, flat diurnal altocu at about
7kft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge to our N during the short term splits, the main
center backing to the west. This leaves a weakness in our H5 height
field that according to guidance still won`t lead to rain chances
while temperatures remain seasonably warm. Friday offers up some
uncertain rain chances, hinging almost exclusively on the
system that moves out of the Bahamas that could have tropical
characteristics even as it remains very weak. The latter part
of the period will see a weak congealing of the H5 ridge while
surface flow stays weak. Inland locations should warm into the
mid/upper 90s while the marine layer tempers the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR to dominate the terminals thru the 24 hr period. The
exception will be the coastal terminals where onshore movement
of stratocu could result in brief periodic MVFR ceilings in the
2500-3000 ft level. Otherwise, an upper ridge centered over
the NC-SC vicinity will keep convection suppressed for the next
several days. Surface high pressure will remain centered off
the NE States, continuing to ridge SW across the Carolinas.
This positioning will maintain an onshore flow across the
terminals, hiest speeds during the day aided by a resultant
wind, aka sea breeze. Boundary layer winds and dry low level
air will keep fog/low stratus at bay tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure off the NE CONUS will
maintain onshore flow through the period. A 1 ft SE swell every 12
seconds will persist, and a 2-3 ft easterly wind wave will build to
3-4 ft through the day Tuesday.

Wednesday night through Sunday...  A very long fetch of easterly
flow will be present for most of the period around the south side of
an east-west oriented high offshore. Guidance has backed off just
shy of saying that this swell/wind wave combo yields advisory-worth
6 ft seas Wednesday or even Thursday but flags could be needed as
the Bahama system approaches and its track is highly uncertain.
Hopefully details become clearer in future model runs. A little bit
of variability creeps into the winds Saturday behind the
system, likely disrupting the swell energy as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Other - Rip Currents: A building easterly
swell will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east and
southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) the end
of the week. A high risk of rip currents is forecasted for
Pender, New Hanover and Georgetown county beaches, along with
Myrtle Beach southward in Horry, Wednesday through Friday. The
south facing beaches of Brunswick county (east of Ocean Isle)
will likely have strong east to west longshore currents these
days due to easterly swell and winds versus strong rip currents.
Breaking wave heights approach 6 feet at east-facing beaches
late Thursday through early Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...ILM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO