Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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545 FXUS63 KJKL 231930 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few storms may approach severe thresholds with damaging winds being the primary threat this afternoon and evening. - Tuesday and Wednesday will see the afternoon highs return to the low 90s. Friday and Saturday will be the hottest 2 days of the forecast, with highs in the low to mid 90s. - The next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 313 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2024 The surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front pushing toward the Ohio River and low pressure pushing into the New England region. There is a mid- and upper level trough axis noted and will lead to some height falls through the afternoon and evening. A line of left over convection and mostly sprinkles now has pushed toward far southeast parts of Kentucky this afternoon. We are starting to see shallow convection develop this afternoon amid increasingly unstable region mainly northwest of eastern Kentucky. These seem to be having trouble develop amid capping and increased cloud cover. SPC did put out and MCD this afternoon highlighting the threat of severe weather mainly in the form of severe wind gusts for areas primarily along and north of I-64. The latest trends in the mesoanalysis data show MLCAPE of of around 1000-1500 J/kg building into the area amid a less than ideal 20-30 knots of effective shear. If cells can develop into multicell clusters this could help promote stronger updrafts, with notable dry air in the mid- levels that could aid in strong winds gusts given the 90th percentile 850mb jet for this time of year. However, mesoanalysis is also showing more ideal DCAPE remains mostly north and west of I-64. The CAMs want to build activity through the afternoon and evening, with the experimental MPAS model data showing clusters of storms mainly later this afternoon and early evening. Leaned toward the NBM mostly for PoPs with some modifications given it seemed bullish in the southeast. This cold front will lag behind the convection expected this afternoon and evening. Therefore, the front will pass through late tonight into early morning on Monday. This could spark off a shower late tonight into early Monday morning, but there remains lots of uncertainty this will happen as we quickly loose better moisture. The convection will decrease through the evening and clouds are expected to clear some through the night. This would lead to a degree or 2 difference from the Ridges and valleys. There is also some uncertainty on the amount of fog we see tonight, as there is uncertainty on the coverage a amounts of rainfall. Even so, valleys will have a shot of seeing patchy to areas of fog tonight. Monday will certainly be one of the better days of the week, with PWATs in the HREF of less than 1 inch. This decrease in moisture, northwest flow, and high pressure will lead to sunny skies and seasonable temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s. This high pressure and clear skies will go into Monday. Given the dry day Monday, we will see a little more notable temperatures split of 5 degrees or a little more. This will also lead to another period of fog in the valleys late tonight into Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2024 The extended period will start off with an extensive ridge of high pressure centered over the southwest CONUS and southern Plains. The ridging will extend northward up the West Coast and into the Pacific Northwest and into the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. A fast moving trough of low pressure will make its way east through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley, with a stronger trough exiting extreme northern New England into the open Atlantic. Weaker ridging will be in place across the Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast states to begin the period. The models were in pretty good agreement with this starting set up and were showing a general eastward progression of a cold front extended southward from the northern trough and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday night and Wednesday. That will be the period where we see our best rain chances in the extended, as the front moves through and interacts with a northward surge of warm, moist air off the Gulf of Mexico. A line of showers and storms is progged to advance through the region from very late Tuesday night, through the day on Wednesday, as the cold front moves through and then slow greatly late Wednesday. In fact, the boundary may even stall out near the VA border, and keeping scattered showers and storms around the end of the day on Thursday for our southeastern counties. Once the first cold front moves away, another ridge of high pressure will move in and bring another period of hot and muggy weather to eastern Kentucky Thursday and Friday. We could see highs on those days in the low to mid 90s. The ridge will bring conditions favorable for modest ridge valley temperature differences to the area Tuesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night. Another area of low pressure will bring another round of rain and storms to the area Saturday through Sunday. The primary weather concerns in the extended will be how strong any storm we see on Wednesday are able to become and the hot and muggy conditions that will be returning on Friday and Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2024 A line of mainly sprinkles continues to push southward across the area this afternoon. We are mainly seeing mid- and high level clouds as a result. However, some lower cloud bases are working across northern Kentucky this afternoon and could lead to some near MVFR Cigs through the afternoon and evening. The potential also still exists for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening, but still some uncertainty on if and when these will occur at the TAF sites. Opted to add in some rain showers/VCTS between 22Z and 23Z when it seemed like we would see peak in the deeper moisture and moderate instability. Outside of this, river valley fog could be a concern later tonight and will be some what dependent on the amount of rainfall we see from any storms that develop this afternoon. The winds will be out of the southwest this afternoon at 5-10 knots, with gusts of around 15 to 20 knots. These could be higher and more erratic at TAF sites that happen to experience any thunderstorms. However, the wind will slacken through the later evening hours to around 5 knots or less. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ