-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
986
FXUS63 KLBF 240559
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Enhanced Risk (risk level 3 of 5) of severe weather is
  forecast this evening with large hail up to baseball size,
  severe winds up to 80 mph, and an isolated tornado possible.

- Thunderstorms chances increase Saturday afternoon through
  Sunday during the Memorial Day holiday as temperatures range
  near to slightly below normal.

- A gradual warming trend is expected for next week with highs
  returning to the upper 70s to low 80s by next Wednesday and
  Thursday. Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening across much of western and north central Nebraska.

An upper trough was currently located  from eastern Montana back
through southwest Colorado, with a closed low centered over north
central Wyoming. Surface low pressure ahead of the upper trough near
995mb, positioned from west central South Dakota through the western
Sandhills into eastern Colorado will advance into central Nebraska
by mid evening. Increasing southerly winds ahead of this feature
will bring dewpoints into the mid 50s and SBCAPEs to 2500 J/KG as
highs reach near 80, with near 85 far southwest. The focus for
thunderstorms to initiate will be along the advancing cold front
across the northwest Sandhills and also a distinct dryline near 21Z.
Ahead of the dryline, surface winds will tend to be more backed to
the southeast across southwest Nebraska. Aloft, H7 to H5 lapse rates
will steepen to 8.5 to 9C/KM. The location favoring discrete
supercells will be near and east of the dryline from western Deuel
County, far northeast Colorado into Chase and Dundy County. Across
southwest Nebraska, the supercell composite index will be highest
and supportive of a few severe thunderstorms. These storms would
favor a northeastward movement. Storms will also begin to develop
along the cold front across the northwest Sandhills.  As surface
convergence increases ahead of the cold front and dryline, isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon within an
environment supportive of organized severe weather given a
moderately unstable environment and deep layer shear near 40kts.
Coverage of thunderstorms is expected to increase significantly east
of Highway 83 where PoPs increase to as high as 80-90%. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for areas
east of a Crookston through Wauneta line and an Enhanced Risk (Level
3 of 5) over central Nebraska, east of a Eustis to Arnold, Brewster
and O`Neill line. Forecast soundings depict clockwise curving
hodographs, favorable for a brief tornado by early evening across
west central and southwest Nebraska, then possible along the cold
front as a QLCS may support a brief tornado spinup through mid
evening. Isolated very large hail to baseball size is also possible.
As storms congeal along the advancing cold front, a severe MCS is
likely to develop into eastern portions of north central Nebraska as
well as central Nebraska during the evening hours. Very large hail
and damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph may occur. With the progressive
nature of the frontal boundary, expect the main line of storms to
exit southeastern zones by 06Z. While not overly significant,
rainfall amounts up to 1.25" is possible near and east of Ainsworth
through Broken Bow. With recent rainfall, this may present at least
a localized flooding risk.

Winds behind the cold front may gust up to 35 mph tonight, as 3 hr
pressure rises reach up to 6 to 9mb. Lows fall to the upper 30s to
mid 40s, aided by winds keeping the surface mixed.

On Friday, strong northwesterly winds will continue through Friday
morning with gusts up to 35 mph, lessening in the afternoon. Weak
cold air advection will keep afternoon highs on the cooler side from
near 65 to 70 with sunny skies.

Friday night, an upstream upper trough will cross the Great Basin,
with the upper flow across western Nebraska becoming southwesterly.
Moisture will increase with a very low chance for a few showers or
thunderstorms. Will keep the forecast dry attm, as most models are
mainly dry. Lows not as cool in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Saturday and beyond...active weather is expected Saturday afternoon
through Sunday. An upper trough over the Great Basin will cross
the region Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, followed
by a Northern Stream upper trough Sunday into Sunday night.

The main frontal boundary during this time will be draped across
southern and eastern Kansas during this time. The severe weather
risk Saturday will mainly extend across Kansas, with a Marginal
Risk extending northward into central Nebraska, Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. Highs range in the 70s, with low 80s far
southwest on Saturday and upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday behind a cold
front.

Northwest flow aloft Monday, with a transitory upper ridge by
Wednesday, with as slight chance for showers Monday across north
central Nebraska, then dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, with
returning storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Highs warming
into the upper 70s to low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The main impact to aircraft operations will be gusty west to
northwest winds that will be increasing through the predawn
hours and continue into the afternoon once diurnal heating mixes
the boundary layer. Will indicate gusts around 30kt at KLBF but
approaching 40kt at KVTN. Winds start to relax later in the
afternoon and will become light after sunset toward the end of
the valid period.

Radar shows some lingering showers moving through KVTN so will
include an early TEMPO but otherwise a dry TAF period for
central and western Nebraska. While conditions will generally be
VFR, there will be a couple of hour with MVFR CIGS at KVTN this
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...MBS