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532
FXUS66 KLOX 091057
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
357 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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09/356 AM.

Temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side today, except
for the Central Coast where there will be better clearing of
clouds. Then high pressure aloft will warm temperatures and
decrease onshore flow for early next week. Otherwise, night
through morning low clouds will continue across the coast and
valleys through the middle of next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...
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09/325 AM.

A positively tilted trough will continue dropping south into the
region today and tonight. On Monday, a cut-off low is expected to
develop at the base of the trough and will stall about 400 NM
south of Point Conception. Onshore pressure gradients are expected
to trend slightly downwards through Tuesday.

The marine layer is currently around 2800 ft deep, and stratus has
overspread all of the coasts/valleys and is extending into the
foothills. Today, strong northwest winds are expected over the
coastal waters. These winds will clear clouds over the Central
Coast by late morning, and high temperatures will increase. South
of Point Conception, without the influence of the northwesterly
winds, clearing is expected to be slow again today. However, as
the morning onshore pressure gradient is expected to decrease
somewhat, clearing may be marginally better than yesterday. Even
with a chance for quicker clearing, south of Point Conception
temperatures are expected to drop by a couple degrees with
lowering upper level heights.

Regionwide, temperatures will trend upward through Tuesday, when
the cutoff low stalls to the south. This will because of higher
hights over the region and a general decrease in onshore
gradients, that will limit daytime cloud cover and afternoon
seabreezes. However the marine layer will still follow June Gloom
patterns each day, extending into the valleys in the mornings and
clinging to many coasts all day.

Drizzle is possible for the overnight-to-morning time periods
each day. The best chance for drizzle will be Monday night into
Tuesday morning when the upper low nears the area and provides
some additional lift.

The afternoon LAX to DAG gradient is expected to remain strong
(despite the slight weakening) through at least Tuesday (between
7 to 9 MB), and will continue to fuel gusty southwesterly winds
in Antelope Valley and foothills.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...09/355 AM.

The cut-off low will remain in place Wednesday and much of
Thursday. Thursday evening through Friday the upper low will
travel eastward just south of the region. The low will heavily
influence temperatures, which will trend downward each day through
Thursday. Precipitable water anomalies are expected to be well
below normal when the low passes just south of the region, and
maximum vorticity will occur during the stable overnight hours. As
both these components limit the potential for precipitation,
stratiform rain or convective activity is unlikely.

Beginning Friday and continuing into Saturday, there is good
agreement among the models that a strengthening East Pac high
will bring a strong sfc gradient across, especially the coastal
waters. This would drive very strong northwest to north winds
across the region, including a significant Sundowner Wind event.
Additionally, temperatures are expected to trend upward and cloud
cover will trend downward due to the the shift to an northerly
offshore pattern, especially for areas like the deserts, Paso
Robles, and the Santa Barbara South Coast. Beyond Saturday, the
GFS and ECMWF both show indications that northerly winds and
temperatures will continue to increase into early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...09/0714Z.

At 0550Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5600 ft with a temperature of 20 degrees C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Low to moderate confidence TAFs for coastal and valley sites.
Timing of flight category changes could be off by +/- 2 hours.
There is a 25 percent chc that coastal sites with no clearing fcst
may see a few hours of afternoon clearing. From 08Z-15Z cigs may
be 1 flight cat higher than fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 25 percent
chance of BKN008 conds 11Z-14Z. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent
chance of cigs remaining AOA 010. There is a 20 percent chc of VFR
conds developing by 18Z and a 30 percent chc by 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...
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09/231 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast.

For the Outer Waters, there is high confidence of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds through early Monday, then winds and
seas remain below SCA levels between Monday and Thursday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is high confidence of
SCA level winds this afternoon and evening, then winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels between late Sunday night and
Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 30-40
percent chance of SCA level winds late Sunday afternoon and
evening, highest across the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel. Then, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels
between late Sunday night through Thursday.
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&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone
      673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM
      PDT Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
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&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Rorke
SYNOPSIS...Hall/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox