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288
FXUS66 KLOX 082102
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
202 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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08/107 PM.

A deep marine layer will remain in place through the weekend along
with with below normal temperatures. Night and morning low clouds
with drizzle at times will extend well inland with very slow
clearing. Temperates will warm Monday and Tuesday, mainly inland,
as onshore flow weakens.
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&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...
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08/133 PM.

Marine layer was up to 3000 feet this morning and there were
numerous areas that had a thick layer of drizzle this morning that
resulted in measurable amounts of rain, mostly 0.05" or less.
Clouds are again slow to clear and temperatures are well below
normal for coast and valleys. The trough over the eastern Pacific
that is causing all this will be moving closer to the coast
tonight and Sunday so look for very similar conditions again
Sunday morning. However, there is some hope for earlier clearing
and slightly warmer temperatures, at least for areas away from the
immediate coast, as onshore gradients weaken in response to
strong high level easterly flow that will push the low farther
offshore and south.

These trends will continue into Monday, then peak Tuesday which
should be the warmest day at least in the short term forecast.
Morning onshore flow is expected to be half what it was today and
with warming aloft we should see the marine layer drastically
lowering early next week. Marine layer clouds are still expected
to push into the valleys for at least a few hours in the morning
and coastal areas may still struggle to clear in the afternoon.
But daytime highs by Tuesday will be back in the lower 100s for
the Antelope Valley and lower 90s for the warmer coastal valleys.
Interior parts of the coastal plain should reach the mid to upper
70s.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...08/200 PM.

Another warm day expected for inland areas Wednesday, though
probably slightly cooler as gradients start trending onshore as
the upper low to our southwest begins to wobble back east. The
cooling trend will really kick into gear Thursday as the upper
low passes right overhead, resulting in another 3000 foot marine
layer, possible morning drizzle, slow clearing, and well below
normal temperatures.

These conditions will be relatively short-lived however as the
upper low is expected to scoot east rather quickly with rapidly
building high pressure aloft and also increasing northerly flow.
Models have been showing weakening onshore flow to the east and
offshore flow to the north, though the latter wasn`t as strong as
earlier runs had shown. At the very least we should be looking at
widespread warming, even for coastal areas Friday and Saturday
with at least a 40-50% chance of strong Sundowners in the Santa
Barbara area and triple digit heat across the interior. The 12z
GFS is still showing 25-40kt north winds coming across the Santa
Ynez Range Friday evening with 950 mb temps in the low 90s. Will
have to be monitoring that situation this week for possible fire
weather hazards at the end of the week.
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&&

.AVIATION...08/1717Z.

At 1645Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 6000 ft with a temperature of 21 degrees C.

High confidence in 18Z TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Low to moderate confidence 18Z TAFs for coastal and valley sites.
Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current
forecast. There is a 30-40% chance that VFR conditions will not
develop this afternoon for coastal sites south of Point
Conception. There is a 30-40% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions
will not develop tonight at KPRB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 40%
chance that VFR conditions will not develop this afternoon. For
tonight, there is a 40% chance that CIGs will remain above IFR
levels. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...
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08/1223 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Monday morning, there is a 60-80% chance
of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds. From Monday afternoon
through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of SCA
level winds Sunday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through
Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds late
Sunday afternoon and evening. Otherwise for the area, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through
Thursday.
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&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
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&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox