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375
FXUS66 KLOX 072130
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
230 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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07/203 PM.

Night and morning Low clouds and fog with areas of drizzle will
continue across coast and valleys into next week, clearing to
within a few miles of the beaches by afternoon. While
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal near the coast,
temperatures will be warmer over interior sections. Precipitation
is not expected over the region through at least the middle of
next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...
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07/225 PM.

Gradients continue to trend onshore this afternoon, now up to
9.3mb (LAX-DAG). South to north gradients also slightly stronger
which is kept clouds pretty well entrenched over the south facing
beaches. Not seeing too much change in this pattern over the
weekend and into early next week as yet another trough moves
onshore along the West Coast. Daytime temperatures will continue
to trend down across the inland areas, meaning valley highs will
mainly top out in the mid to upper 70s and far interior valleys in
the mid 80s to low 90s. This puts highs around 5 degrees below
normal for coast/valleys and around 5 degrees above normal for the
interior. As the trough gets closer the chances for morning
drizzle will increase and some areas could see light measurable
precip, especially near the coastal slopes. Clearing will be slow,
even across the valleys. Gusty afternoon west to southwest winds
expected each day across the interior valleys and through the
mountain passes.

The NBM is showing a couple degrees of warming early next week
However, models have been consistent showing a weak upper low
settling just west of southern California so probably minimal
changes Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/230 PM.

Models have been consistent showing the upper low hanging around
through most of next week and actually deepening and moving
overhead Wednesday into Thursday. So, expect more of the same
pattern with cooler than normal temperatures across coast/valleys
with slow clearing marine layer and gusty onshore winds across
the interior. There is a potential for warming with some northerly
flow developing Friday into next weekend if the low moves inland
per the latest ensemble solutions.
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&&

.AVIATION...07/1727Z.

At 1700Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5400 ft with a temperature of 23 degrees C.

High confidence in 18Z TAFs for KWJF, KPMD and KPRB.

Moderate confidence in other coastal and valley TAF sites. Timing
of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current
forecasts. There is a 20-30% chance of VFR conditions at KLAX,
KSMO and KOXR 21Z-02Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of
VFR conditions 21Z-03Z. For tonight, timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 50%
chance that CIGs will not drop to LIFR levels. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of return of
IFR/LIFR conditions tonight could be +/- 2 hours of current
forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...
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07/109 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Saturday morning, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels.
From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning, there is a 50-70%
chance of SCA level winds. From Monday afternoon through
Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Sunday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours. For Monday through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.
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&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
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&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox