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759
FXUS61 KLWX 280134
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A potent cold front will track through the Mid-Atlantic this
evening and exit offshore by late tonight. A secondary cold
front moves in by mid-week before high pressure builds in by
Friday before moving offshore by late in the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A Tornado Watch continues for a few counties near the
Chesapeake Bay until 11 PM. However, these could be canceled
sooner if convection exits a bit earlier. The latest radar
imagery shows a wavy squall line pushing into the Eastern Shore
and dangling back to the Anne Arundel/Calvert County border. All
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been allowed to expire given
a downward trend in the ongoing activity. Some lightning
remains, but there has certainly been a decrease in convective
intensity.

While most of the area dries out, some residual upstream radar
echoes are showing up near western Garrett County. These showers
and isolated thunderstorms will likely weaken in time as they
move into a convectively overturned air mass with lower moisture
content.

For tonight, expect low temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday will start out dry in the wake of a cold front and with
dry air aloft. An approaching cold front from the west will
bring increased precipitation chances to those along and west of
the Alleghenies, but any precipitation should remain light.
High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s with overnight
temperatures dipping into the 50s for most.

Unsettled weather returns Wednesday as an upper level trough and
shortwave energy track overhead. With more moisture aloft and
increased instability, a few thunderstorms are possible. The
aforementioned cold front will move over the forecast area
Wednesday evening and into the overnight. High temperatures
will continue to gradually cool with those at higher elevations
topping out in the 60s to low 70s. Elsewhere, high temperatures
will be in the 70s. Overnight low temperatures will dip into
the 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The area will still be under the upper trough Thursday. However,
much drier air will be in place with dew points in the 40s. There
will still be enough instability due to the cold air aloft for cloud
development and perhaps an isolated shower. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 70s. Lows will drop back into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

The trough axis will start to progress off to the east Friday while
high pressure remains to the northwest. This will result in another
day of below normal temperatures within northwesterly flow. Sunny
skies are expected, with high temperatures generally in the lower to
mid 70s. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes Friday
night. With clear skies, light to calm winds, and dewpoints only in
the low to mid 40s, it will be a chilly first night of June, with
low temperatures dropping back into the 40s to near 50 for most. The
cold pockets in the higher elevations could approach freezing.

Narrow upper ridging will build overhead next weekend, before the
flow flattens out and turns more zonal in nature early next week.
High pressure at the surface will move overhead Saturday morning,
before progressing offshore later Saturday into Sunday. As this
happens, a slight warming trend in temperatures will occur. Some
uncertainty exists on when the next shortwave troughs will suppress
the ridge. The forecast carries gradually increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Any thunderstorm impacts to the area terminals have ended.
Upstream activity seen near western Maryland should dissipate
before reaching KMRB.

VFR and dry conditions are expected Tuesday at all terminals
with any precipitation remaining out to the west. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Wednesday. VFR
conditions are expected outside of any showers and
thunderstorms. Winds remain out of the west/northwest.

VFR conditions expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds
in from the northwest. An isolated convective shower remains
possible Thursday afternoon. A few northwesterly wind gusts may also
reach 20 kt Thursday afternoon.
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&&

.MARINE...
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A residual Special Marine Warning threat looms for the waters
adjacent to Anne Arundel and Calvert counties, extending into
the tributaries around the Eastern Shore. However, there has
certainly been a downward tick in the intensity of showers the
past hour or so.

Winds remain out of the west on Tuesday and Wednesday and are
expected to remain below SCA criteria. The exception is the
northern part of the Chesapeake Bay, where SCA criteria winds
are expected Tuesday morning and into the afternoon.

Northwesterly flow continues Thursday and Friday. Marginal SCA
conditions may linger for portions of the waters Thursday into
Thursday night.

&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With increasing south/southeast flow, there will be a higher
chance of minor flooding during the next two high tide cycles.
Straits Point and DC SW Waterfront will be most susceptible
with minor flooding forecast at each. In particular, Annapolis
actually did reach minor tidal flooding this evening. Westerly
winds behind a cold front will lead to decreasing anomalies
through the middle of the week.
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&&


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530-
     531-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS/BRO
NEAR TERM...AVS/BRO
SHORT TERM...AVS/BRO
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/AVS/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR/AVS/BRO